Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings Odds: Defending Champs Open as Favorites
Warriors Begin Title Defense Against Division Rivals
Sacramento Returns to the Playoffs
The Sacramento Kings have ended the longest active playoff drought in American sports and now they’re ready to make some noise against the Golden State Warriors. Let’s take a look at the Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings Odds for their upcoming first-round series matchup.
The Warriors took the regular season series between these teams 3-1, but the final win in Sacramento came against a Kings team missing their starters after they already secured their spot as the #3 seed in the West.
The question surrounding the outcome of this series is whether the Warriors can truly win on the road to steal home court advantage. Golden State finished the regular season 11-30 on their travels and were beaten 122-115 in Sacramento earlier in the season when both teams were at full strength.
Sacramento has heard all the media talk about the bottom seeds aiming to match up with them in the first-round and they’ll be out to show that they’re not just here to make up the numbers in their return to postseason basketball.
Draymond Green recently stated in his podcast that the Warriors were looking to bully a young, inexperienced Kings team early to force self-doubt upon their opponents – that said, if anyone can motivate his players to ignore the noise its former Warriors assistant, turned Kings Head Coach Mike Brown.
Brown is a deserving frontrunner for Coach of the Year honors and the familiarity he has with Steve Kerr and the Warriors players makes for an interesting sub-plot to this series.
Despite being the higher seed and owning the most efficient offense in NBA history, oddsmakers have listed the Kings at +240 to win the series. The Warriors are -150 with a -1.5 games handicap, meaning a 4-2 series win or better would be required for bettors to cash.
While Sacramento’s return to the playoffs may have yielded the toughest possible first-round opponent the market disrespect is something that will be heard loud and clear in the Kings locker room heading into Game 1.
Healthy Warriors Still Unbeaten
The Golden State Warriors do still have an aura of invincibility about them; the team has not lost a best-of-seven series when Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have been healthy and available.
While the defending champs took a while to find their stride this season the team seems cemented in its rotations and their role players are a lot clearer on their responsibilities within the system.
The biggest talking point for the team coming into this series is how Andrew Wiggins looks on his return to basketball after a length layoff due to personal reasons. Wiggins, who averaged 17.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists this season, remains the teams best on-ball defender and his presence will be crucial in trying to contain DeAaron Fox above the key.
Stopping the Kings offense at the point of attack will be crucial in slowing down a team that just recorded the best Offensive Rating in NBA history, but it also won’t be the only thing they need to prevent.
Turnovers have been a constant Achilles heel for this Warriors team and they again ranked amongst the worst in the league in that category. The team finished 29th in Turnover percentage and allowing the Kings to play in transition is a recipe for disaster.
Curry recently acknowledged that in order for the team to progress in the playoffs and make a deep run they need to be better at taking care of the basketball and make a conscious effort to rebound the basketball. Kevon Looney should figure prominently in this series and across his four meetings with the Domantas Sabonis this season he has a +32 net rating when on the court.
New Kids on the Block
The Kings certainly announced themselves this season in their first season under Mike Brown, clinching the Pacific Division after being listed at +50000 to do so in pre-season.
The pairing of Fox and Sabonis have played a large role in their success, with the former being listed as favorite for the Clutch Player of the Year award. Fox averaged 25.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists this season and his ability to attack the paint and collapse a defense has been pivotal in helping this offense become the unstoppable force that has overrun opponents all season long.
The question around this team all season has been whether that offense can overcome their porous defense in the playoffs.
Sacramento ranked 25 in Adjusted Defensive Rating this season. They were 27th in Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage, 22nd in opponent Rim percentage, 27th in opponent Midrange percentage and 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.
What’s more concerning is they were 28th in points per possession allowed in halfcourt sets – only the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets ranked worse in halfcourt defense this season.
Stopping Golden State’s motion offense is likely a bridge too far and so the impetus for Mike Brown’s team will be to limit the Warriors offensive possessions by generating turnovers and preventing second chance opportunities.
The Kings ranked 6th in opponent Offensive Rebounding percentage and Sabonis was the NBA player stats leader in rebounding this season, averaging 12.3 rebounds per game. The King were 1st in transition frequency off live rebounds and 2nd in transition frequency off live steals – both of those areas will be key to them ensuring their offense is what dictates the outcome of games in this series.
While Golden State’s experience and poise have them as deserving favorites the fact that they’ve been unreliable on the road all season and face a team that quite literally has a historically good offense means there’s undeniable value to be had on the Kings in this series.
They have already shortened to 1.0-point favorites for Game 1 after opening as underdogs and their series price will drop considerably if they do secure a win in front of their home fans. Take the Kings to win the series at +240 and give yourself good market position moving forward should they manage at least a split in the first four games of this series.
That’s all for our Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings Odds preview. Be sure to check out all our NBA playoff previews, NBA player stats, and analysis at PointSpreads.com.
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