Heat vs Bucks Odds: No. 8 Seed Miami Looking for Huge Upset

Milwaukee in Danger of Becoming Sixth No. 1 Seed to Fall to No. 8

The No. 8 seed Miami Heat find themselves on the brink of a stunning upset in their first-round series against the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Leading 3-1, the Heat need to win just one of the next three games to knock off the NBA title favorites.

Miami’s first opportunity will come Wednesday (9:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV) in Game 5 at Fiserv Forum. Despite its struggles, Milwaukee is listed as a commanding 11-point favorite, including -600 on the moneyline. Miami, meanwhile, is +450.

Heat logo Heat vs Bucks Bucks logo

Date & Time:
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Streaming: NBA TV

Let’s take a closer look at the Heat vs Bucks odds:

The Butler Did It

Jimmy Butler delivered an historic effort Monday, scoring a playoff franchise record 56 points to help Miami overcome a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Butler also added nine rebounds, two assists and a block to his 19-for-28 effort from the floor. He played a team-high 41 minutes, shouldering a bigger workload following injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.

Butler’s 56 points were a new career high and the fourth-highest scoring performance in NBA playoff history. He scored 22 of Miami’s 28 first-quarter points, including 20 straight, on 9-of-10 shooting. His performance overshadowed the return of Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had 26 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds and two blocks following a two-game absence because of a sore lower back.

The only players to score more in a playoff game include Michael Jordan (63 points) in 1986, Elgin Baylor (61) in 1962 and Donovan Mitchell (57) in 2020.

Butler — nicknamed “Playoff Jimmy” because of his reputation for elevating his game in the postseason — outscored Milwaukee 21-16 over the final seven minutes and 30 seconds. He is now averaging 36.5 points in the series, up from 22.9 points during the NBA regular season.

In all, Butler has averaged 24 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game in the playoffs with the Heat entering Monday. He carried Miami to the 2020 NBA Finals in the Orlando bubble and guided it to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022.

Milwaukee’s Playoff Outlook Dims

After going a league-best 58-24 during the regular season, Milwaukee is in danger of going from title favorite to bust. Following its Game 4 loss, Milwaukee’s odds of winning the NBA championship dropped from +360 to +600. Boston remains atop the board at +225, while Phoenix is next in line at +400 after leapfrogging the Bucks. Additionally, Boston’s odds of winning the Eastern Conference improved from +120 to -115.

It’s a stunning fall for the Bucks, who entered the playoffs as the NBA favorite at +275.

Trailing 3-1, Milwaukee is now in danger of becoming just the sixth No. 1 seed in NBA history to lose to a No. 8 seed and the first since Philadelphia upset Chicago 4-2 in 2012. The other instances: Denver over Seattle in 1994, New York over Miami in 1999, Golden State over Dallas in 2007 and Memphis over San Antonio in 2011.

For the first time, the Heat are now favored to win the series (-155). They were +750 before Game 1.

Miami Continues to ‘Heat’ Up

The Heat have taken their offense to another level against Milwaukee, averaging a playoff-best 123 points through four games. It’s quite a transformation, given that they were the NBA’s lowest-scoring team during the regular season (109.5 points per game).

Miami either hit or exceeded 123 points just 10.9% of the time over its 82-game slate.

Handicapping Game 5

Oddsmakers certainly aren’t expecting Milwaukee to go out quietly. The Heat vs Bucks odds say as much. The Bucks are 11-point favorites in Game 5, exceeding the largest NBA spread this series. Meanwhile, the over/under jumped to 219.5, two points higher than the projected total in Game 4. Notably, the teams have combined to score at least 220 points in all four games.

While Miami has an upper hand on Milwaukee at the moment, there’s still a path for the Bucks to rebound in the Heat vs Bucks series. That is, of course, assuming Antetokounmpo, who played 38 minutes in Game 4, is past the injury that sidelined him earlier in the series.

In NBA history, only 13 teams have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win Game 7. The most recent team to do so was the 2020 Denver Nuggets, who came back to beat both the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles.

Again, it’s a steep hill to climb. But Milwaukee will get two of the next three games — assuming the series goes that far — at home, where they were 32-9 during the regular season.

For Heat vs Bucks odds, NBA scores, analysis and more, visit pointspreads.com.

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