Heat vs Knicks Odds: New York Favored to Win Series

Knicks Small Home Favorites in Game 1

The Heat vs Knicks odds show New York is -160 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. The price on the Heat is +140. Seeing the Knicks favored isn’t much of a surprise. The Heat beat the better team in Milwaukee, but the Knicks were 3-1 against Miami this season. New York also has home court advantage.

The Heat vs Knicks odds have New York favored by 4 in Saturday’s Game 1. The total on the game is 206.5, which is 9 points lower than any over/under between the teams this season.

The last time these two played the total was 225. New York going under the total all five games has a bit to do with the low number. But the Heat went over the total all five games with Milwaukee. This is the first time in the last 20 years teams with such opposite totals streaks have met in the playoffs.

The Knicks finished the regular season with a 47-35 record, which was three games ahead of Miami. The Heat were 44-38. At home, the Knicks were 23-18, while the Heat were 17-24 on the road. The Knicks went 24-17 away from home and the Heat were 27-14 in front of the home fans.

The NBA team stats show the Knicks were a higher-scoring team at home. New York’s home games saw an average of 228.3 points compared to 226 points on the road. Miami saw 219.4 points in road games and 220.3 points at home.

The Heat were 13-8-1 in totals as an away underdog, while New York has gone 20-9 in totals when favored at home. The Knicks’ total was more impressive before the two unders against Cleveland in the playoffs.

The Butler Did It

Obviously the goal for the Knicks on defense is to stop Jimmy Butler. That’s something the Bucks couldn’t do. Butler averaged 37.6 points against Milwaukee after scoring 98 points in the last two games.

He had at least 25 points in each game and is shooting 59.7% from the field. Butler did average 22.5 points against the Knicks this season.

Love Heats Up When It Counts

After playing fewer than 20 minutes a game through the first four contests, Kevin Love played 32 minutes in Game 5. He responded with 15 points and 12 rebounds in the contest.

Love can still give you some quality minutes. Just not as many as he could when he was younger. Getting some production from him will make things easier for the Heat.

Knicks Do it With Defense

The Knicks weren’t at their best offensively against Cleveland. The NBA scores show the Knicks averaged just 99.6 points against the Cavs. But the defense allowed just 94.2 points per game. The Knicks held Cleveland to 95 or fewer points the last three games.

These playoffs have seen teams go 8-0 when holding the opposition to 95 or fewer points. In the regular season teams were 124-8 when not allowing more than 95 points. Offense is nice, but it’s still defense that wins games.

Teams Play Close Games During Season

While New York was 3-1 against Miami during the season, all of the games were close. New York won by nine and by two points on two occasions. Miami’s win was by seven points. There isn’t a huge talent difference between the two teams, so this one should yield some close games.

Handicapping Game 1

The Heat vs Knicks odds of New York -4 is about where you would expect it to be. The Knicks were favored by 5 the last time these teams met in March. Both teams have a few days to recover from their previous series. That should favor Miami a little bit, having several older players. It should also give Miami a chance to come down from knocking off the No. 1 team.

Miami beat Milwaukee on the strength of its offense. The Heat should look to continue to play at a quicker pace. The Knicks will do all they can to slow things down. In a battle of offense versus defense, the defense usually comes out on top. But the Heat have some players who have been on the big stage before. That’s something that can’t be overlooked the deeper you get into the playoffs.

The Heat +140 offers a bit of value on the series bet and think Miami has a solid shot at getting a split in the first two road games. The over is tempting, but the teams played a 101-92 game last time they met. That makes it tough to pull the trigger in Game 1 considering how well New York is playing defensively.

The Heat +4 is probably the right side for the opening game of the series, which should be a good one.


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