Heat vs Nuggets Odds: Can Miami Adjust to Mile High Altitude?

Backs to the Wall Again for Miami

The Miami Heat head straight to Denver as they prepare for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against a fresh and rested Nuggets team. Let’s take a look at the Heat vs Nuggets Odds and see what stands out in the early betting markets.

The Heat will have little time to capture their breath as they try to adjust to the gruelling Denver altitude while recovering from their seven-game thriller against the Boston Celtics. If this were a regular season game you would chalk it up as a schedule loss for the road team, but with no such thing existing in the NBA Finals it’ll be interesting to see just how they prepare for this one.

The only form of worry for the Nuggets ahead of Game 1 is whether the time off will encompass an element of rust in the early goings given it will have been 10 days since they last took the floor in LA. That said, rest advantage has proved crucial for teams in Game 1 situations in these playoffs and we’ll see if that will again be the case here.

The Nuggets have been bet up to -8.5 point favorites for this one, while the full game total has seen some early support toward the Over and is currently sitting at 219.0 points.

Denver Set to Test Miami’s Legs

Coach Malone is under no disillusion as to how hard this series will be and reiterated his belief that the Heat are deserving of their place and will make life harder than any team has so far for this Nuggets squad.

“You get to the NBA Finals, it’s not about seeding anymore,” Malone said after practice. “And for those who are thinking that this is going to be an easy series, I don’t even know what to say to you people.”

With that said, there’s one thing that even coach knows will work to their advantage in Game 1 and that’s to run at every opportunity. Fatigue is always a factor in Denver for visiting teams, but given what Miami’s players have had to endure while the Nuggets sat at home resting up there’s no denying that the biggest on-court matchup to start this series will be fresh legs.

Denver ranks 1st in points per possession in transition these playoffs and have shown a willingness to constantly push the pace off makes and misses when the opportunity suits them. They did it successfully against the Lakers last series and used it to wear down Phoenix in the series before that.

Looking at some NBA player stats, the Nuggets create the most wide open 3’s in transition of any team in the 2023 playoffs and given how Miami’s offense is likely to operate they’ll need to create and make their 3-pointers in this series if they’re to assert their dominance.

Heat Ready to Fire Away

There’s one thing Denver hasn’t had to deal with yet these playoffs: a team built to stretch the floor.

The Timberwolves, Suns and Lakers were all among the lowest 3-point frequency and accuracy teams in the NBA playoffs this season. Without that ability to stretch the floor it’s hard to assess where a teams defensive vulnerabilities truly lay, but that’s about to be brought into question in this series.

Denver ranked in the bottom half of the league in 3-point Catch & Shoot frequency and efficiency on defense this season. Erik Spoelstra will try to find ways to have Jokic pulled away from the paint where possible and hope that Denver’s over-adjustment to defending the perimeter can then allow Jimmy Butler to play in the midrange and attack an empty lane.

All of this is again dependent on Miami making their wide open 3’s, which is something they did at a truly historic rate in their series against the Celtics. Miami shot 60% on over almost 6.5 wide open 3’s per game, which is the highest efficiency of any playoff team ever.

Regardless of anything else in Game 1 you can be sure that the Heat players will again have a green light from beyond the arc and that should lend itself to some entertaining basketball.

While the market pricing on the Nuggets seems fair, we do believe there’s still strong value on the full game total. Miami will be forced to play with pace and their offensive spacing is going to create different problems for Denver to try and handle.

I’d expect this number to go up by tip-off so grab that Over 219.0 point number while it’s still hanging around.

That’s all for our Heat vs Nuggets Oddspreview for Game 1. Be sure to check out all our basketball picks and NBA analysis for the duration of the NBA Finals.

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