Heat vs Nuggets Preview: Finding the Best Game 1 Player Props
Can Miami's Shooters Do It Again?
Jokic Set for Another Dominant Series
Game 1 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and the player prop markets are rife with value. Let’s look at our Heat vs. Nuggets Preview and see where the best prop markets sit.
Nikola Jokic has been an unstoppable force so far these playoffs, and that’s unlikely to change in a matchup against one of the smaller Centers in the league. While Bam Adebayo possesses terrific defensive versatility, his lack of size against one of the biggest and craftiest players in the league will likely be exposed again in this series.
Jokic’s points+rebounds+assists market has been set at 50.5, and while that seems an absurdly high number for an NBA Finals matchup, there’s no denying that the value is on the over.
In his two games against Miami this season, he’s averaged 1.53 points per shot attempt, while his assist percentage average is .417 on 35.1 minutes per game. Those numbers are astronomically good and would rank in the 99th percentile for each category over a full season.
He also accounted for 31% of his team’s defensive rebounds in those games and recorded a triple-double in both outings. Again, while the total seems extremely high on face value, the matchup and data both present solid cases for the Over 50.5 PRA line (-115) to be one of the best NBA odds available for Game 1.
Heat vs. Nuggets 
Date & Time:
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Streaming: ABC
Beware the Butler
Jimmy Butler remains the best version of himself in the playoffs, which undoubtedly continue in this series.
Butler’s craftiness and ability to get to the line will be hugely valuable in this series. He’ll also be the beneficiary of Miami’s shooters garnering the attention of Denver’s perimeter defenders.
If Miami continues with its pace-and-space approach for Game 1, we should see plenty of space and potential for Butler to operate in the midrange and play downhill to attack the basket. Expect to see Butler more proactive in pick-and-roll sets with Adebayo to try and take advantage of Jokic on switches and be able to attack the space behind.
Butler’s points total is 27.5 points (-105) and might be the best number on the board for its current price, given the projected usage we’ll get from him to start this series.
The 33-year-old has long been the tone-setter for the Heat, which will be the case in Game 1 of the Finals. Expect him to be aggressive and assertive in a way that only some players can do on the big stage.
Martin Still Flying High
When looking at the NBA Scores and Standings these playoffs, the biggest standout in production came from Miami’s shooters, specifically, Caleb Martin.
Martin was arguably the deserving recipient of the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award and was just one vote shy of taking the honors from Jimmy Butler.
That said, what goes up must come down, and it’s hard to envision Martin’s production being what it was in that series against Boston. Just as things are in the NBA regular season, it become much more difficult when teams have film and can specifically scout you and your tendencies.
Martin’s points total for Game 1 is 15.5 points (-119), and I’d expect regression to hit pretty hard to start this series. Taking the Under on Martin’s points total might be the most challenging bet to make on form, but statistically, it seems the most likely to cash.
Gabe Vincent is another player who might be set for some regression. Vincent was battling an ankle injury in the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, and any lingering effects will undoubtedly be felt playing in altitude.
Vincent’s total points are 12.5 points (-125), and while the juice is a fair deterrent, there’s good reason to believe he may see less opportunity to start this series.
That’s all for our Heat vs. Nuggets Preview player prop preview. Our four top props are locked in as we prepare for a memorable Game 1 in Denver.
