Indiana’s Hot Shooting Still Isn’t Enough

Celtics vs Pacers G4 Predictions: The Over Keeps Hitting

The Boston Celtics added another nail-biting win on Saturday after defeating the Indiana Pacers 114-111 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Celtics now lead the series 3-0 and have a chance to sweep the Pacers in a four-game series tonight. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. Meanwhile, the Pacers still don’t know if they’ll have Tyrese Haliburton for tonight’s game after he missed Game 3 with a hamstring injury.

His absence hurt the Pacers in Saturday’s matchup. Indiana shot lights out and held the lead for most of the game. But they didn’t have someone to close out and finish the game. That’s where Haliburton would’ve come into play.

With Haliburton’s uncertainty, the Celtics are back to -8 on the road. The total is also at 222.5, but the Over is juiced to -115.

Knowing that, here are our Celtics vs Pacers G4 predictions in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Celtics logo Celtics vs Pacers Pacers logo

Records: Boston Celtics (75-20), Indiana Pacers (55-44)
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN (Game 4)
Day/Time: TV & Live Stream: ESPN

Celtics vs Pacers G4 Predictions & Trends

Although the Pacers have covered two of the first three games of this Eastern Conference Finals series, Indiana has still lost all three games straight up.

However, the Over has hit in all three games of this series. Interestingly enough, the Over hit in the first two games of the series but Game 3’s total was still lower than the first two games. Even with line movement that favored the Under, the Over still hit at Over 220.5 in Game 3.

The Celtics have won eight of their last ten games against the Pacers, including the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pacers have won against the spread in six of ten games. Finally, the Over has hit in seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between the Celtics and Pacers.

There are no other NBA games today.

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Could Kristaps Porzingis Return in Game 4?

Although Kristaps Porzingis missed his ninth straight game in the playoffs, he wrote “LFG” on X that went super viral and spread throughout the NBA world.

Obviously, he couldn’t contain his excitement after the Celtics’ Game 3 win. But there might be more to it than his excitement over the Celtics’ win.

There were already rumors about Porzingis potentially returning from Game 4. The cryptic message could mean he’s nearing his return. Don’t be surprised if he’s available for Boston’s next game. Although, again, nothing is confirmed. It’s all speculation.

Is Andrew Nembhard a Star?

With Tyrese Haliburton unable to play in Game 3, Andrew Nembhard took over as the team’s starting point guard. Nembhard has shown glimpses of his potential throughout the postseason. But when the ball was in his hand in Game 3, it was clear that Nembhard was more special than many might’ve thought.

In 39 minutes, he added 32 points on 12-for-21 from the field. Nembhard also shot 4-for-7 from three and contributed nine assists and four rebounds without missing a foul shot.

He was a star but couldn’t close it out for the Pacers in Game 3. Therefore, despite his impressive showing on Saturday, the NBA betting lines haven’t changed much for Game 4.

Defensive Wins Championships

The Pacers have the best offense in the NBA. But it doesn’t matter if the defense can’t get stops.

Since Game 5 against the New York Knicks, the Pacers haven’t had a good defensive performance. They’ve struggled defensively in every game against the Celtics in this series.

In every game since Game 5, the Pacers have allowed at least 118.8 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also allowed teams to shoot at least a 50.6% effective field goal percentage in every game.

In addition, the Celtics have added a free-throw rate of at least 24.5 in two of three games, and the Pacers have allowed at least a 24.5 free-throw rate in three of their last four games.

In Game 3 against Boston, the Pacers limited the Celtics to 20.5% of offensive rebounds. Yet, they still couldn’t win because the Celtics shot an effective field goal percentage of 58% and turned the ball over below 10% of the time. This is why Boston was always at the top of the Celtics standings.

On the other hand, the Pacers have been above-average offensively. They just haven’t been good enough because of their lack of defense.

For example, in all three games against the Celtics, Indiana scored at least 114.3 points per 100 possessions and shot an effective field goal percentage of 53.9%. They’ve even added at least 27.9% of offensive rebounds per game.

The difference is Indiana’s lack of foul shots and overall poor defensive play. They’ve out-scored teams throughout the season and in the playoffs. However, the Celtics are nearly just as good analytically on the offensive end and have been much more consistent defensively.

That’s why the Pacers continue to cover, but Boston continues to escape with wins.

That said, as long as the oddsmakers keep giving up a total of around 220.5, we’ll gladly back the Over. The Over has hit in all three games to start the series. It isn’t just a luck thing. These are the top two offenses in the NBA, and the Pacers don’t have good numbers defensively, which is why our Celtics vs Pacers G4 predictions like the Over.

Celtics vs Pacers Odds

For NBA championship odds, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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