Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Odds Analysis

Nuggets Huge Favorites Once Again in Game 2

The Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets odds show Denver favored by 8.5 points in Wednesday’s Game 2. The total on the game is 223.5 and Denver is a hefty -350 on the moneyline. The lines are pretty comparable to the numbers seen in Game 1, which was won by Denver 109-80. This is one of four matchups on the NBA games schedule for Wednesday. The game begins at 10 p.m. ET and will be broadcast by TNT.

The Timberwolves led by one point on a couple of occasions in the first quarter. But it was all Denver after that. The Nuggets led 55-44 at halftime and 87-58 after three quarters. The bench players played a lot in what was basically a meaningless fourth quarter.

The Timberwolves didn’t do anything well in Game 1. Minnesota was 37% from the field and 30.6% from the 3-point range. The Timberwolves were bad from the foul line and were clobbered on the boards. The Nuggets had a 54-38 rebounding advantage.

Denver was a solid 41% from 3-point range for the game. Teams aren’t going to lose many games with shooting like that. The Nuggets weren’t at their best from 2-point range or the foul line. But it didn’t matter as the game was essentially over in the third quarter.

Timberwolves logoMinnesota Timberwolves vs Denver NuggetsNuggets logo

Day/Time:
Location: Ball Arena

No Place Like Home

Sunday’s game was the fifth meeting between Denver at Minnesota this season. The home team has won all five meetings. Four of those five games were won by double digits. Denver won 122-118 in the only game of the season that wasn’t decided by at least 10 points. The previous margins of victory should make anyone who feels the Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets odds are a bit high feel more confident if they like Denver.

Turnovers Have Proven Deadly

The team that has made the most turnovers has lost every game between the two teams this season. Karl-Anthony Towns had a game-high four turnovers on Sunday. Those aren’t exactly the type of NBA player stats you want to see. Obviously, taking care of the basketball is crucial for both teams.

Shooting Woes Plague Both Teams

Sunday’s game saw the two lowest field goal percentages in any game between the teams this season. During the four regular season games, the lowest field goal percentage turned in by one team was Denver’s 46.2% at Minnesota. The Nuggets shot 45.6% on Sunday. But even that was better than the dismal 37% turned in by the Timberwolves.

Handicapping Game 2

The Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets odds are about where you would expect following Game 1. The ‘Wolves will get enough action from bettors expecting Minnesota to bounce back. While the ease with which the Nuggets won will have some bettors flocking to the favorite.

There is no magical solution for the Minnesota Timberwolves. They need to shoot better, rebound better and take better care of the basketball. The Timberwolves played about as poorly as you can on Sunday. And the final score was indicative of how they played.

The Nuggets don’t want to do anything different. Why change what is obviously working? The last two games have seen Denver win 109-80 and 146-112. The main thing for Denver is just to come out with the same intensity they did for the opening game. Sometimes that’s easier said than done, especially when you cruise to a victory in Game 1.

This isn’t the worst of situational spots for the Timberwolves if past history is any indication. Playoff road underdogs who lost their last game as a road underdog by 25 or more points have gone 23-15 (60.5%) in their next game dating back to 2003-04. But as the line goes up, the winning percentage goes down. Underdogs of 5 or more points are 17-14 ATS and dogs of 7 or more are just a breakeven 11-10 ATS.

Dating back to the 2013 NBA playoffs, teams who scored 80 points or less are 15-11 (57.7%) against the spread. So you can probably make a slight case for the Timberwolves based on the trends. But that’s about it.

Until either team shows that it can hit some shots, the best here may be to ride the under once again. Both teams played decent defense in Game 1 and it could very well continue Wednesday night.

 

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