Mystics Look to Slow Down WNBA Contending Sun

Mystics vs Suns Lines List Connecticut as -500 ML Favorite

After breezing past Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever in their season opener, the Connecticut Sun will look to build on their fast start. They host the Washington Mystics on Friday. Connecticut is a nine-point favorite and -500 on the moneyline, with Washington +380 to win outright. The projected total is 157.5 with a slight edge to the over at -112 odds.

What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and analyze the Mystics vs Sun lines in our WNBA game preview.

Mystics vs Sun

Records: Washington Mystics (0-1), Connecticut Sun (1-0)

Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
Streaming: ION

Mystics vs Sun Betting Trends

The Washington Mystics were 18-21-1 against the spread (ATS) last season, the second-worst cover rate in the WNBA ahead of only the Phoenix Mercury (15-25). As for the over/under, the Mystics were 15-24-1.

Conversely, the Connecticut Sun were among the most profitable teams at 21-17-2 ATS. The Sun also did well against the over/under, going 22-18.

That’s important to remember when assessing the game odds.

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Delle Donne’s Absence Looms Large

Expectations are quite low for Washington. Projected for only 11.5 wins, the Mystics are one of the WNBA’s two biggest longshots with +10000 title odds. Without Elena Delle Donne, who is taking an indefinite break from basketball, the Mystics lack considerable star power.

Despite that, the Mystics displayed signs of promise to open the season. For one, the Mystics covered as 11.5-point home underdogs in their 85-80 loss to New York.

Ariel Atkins scored a team-high 20 points, while Brittney Sykes contributed 14 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. She figures to be Washington’s go-to player on most nights and has averaged double figures in six straight seasons per WNBA stats. Atkins scored a career-high 16.2 points per game in 2021. Her supporting cast, though, is underwhelming.

Delle Donne’s absence remains the biggest issue. The two-time WNBA MVP has appeared in only 51 games over the last three seasons because of recurring back issues. She also sat out the 2020 season in the Bradenton, Fla., bubble due to COVID-19 concerns. Delle Donne, who turned 34 in September, has possibly played her last game for the Mystics.

Washington has finished below .500 in three of the last four seasons since its 2019 WNBA title, with three first-round playoff losses. This season, simply making the bracket would be an accomplishment.

So Far, So Good for Sun

Outside of Las Vegas and New York, nobody has better WNBA title odds than Connecticut. It’s warranted. By keeping their core intact this offseason, the Sun maintained their place as a championship contender. They also made some important moves around the margins, improving their depth with the additions of Moriah Jefferson and Tiffany Mitchell.

In Alyssa Thomas, they have one of the most indispensable players in the league. Thomas contributed 13 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds, and three steals in Tuesday’s 92-71 rout of Indiana, helping the Sun cover as 6.5-point favorites.

Nicknamed “The Engine,” Thomas finished third in the MVP voting last season after recording 28 double-doubles, six triple-doubles, and a single-season record of 316 assists.

On the heels of a Finals appearance in 2022, the Sun won 27 games and reached the semifinals, losing in four games to New York. Still seeking their first WNBA championship, the Sun are +1100 to win the title. Only the two-time defending champion Aces (-105) and Liberty (+220) are bigger favorites.

With Connecticut being veteran-laden, health is a big factor. Thomas (32) and DeWanna Bonner (36) are both over 30, while the 28-year-old Brionna Jones is coming off a torn Achilles. Jones had eight points, three rebounds, and three steals in 19 minutes on Tuesday, her first action in nearly 11 months.

If Jones returns to her pre-injury form, the Sun will remain a fixture atop the WNBA standings. Be sure to keep that in mind when assessing the Mystics vs Sun lines.

Handicapping the Game

Washington couldn’t have asked for a much tougher assignment to start the season. Building early confidence for a young team is key, but that’ll be difficult to do given the competition.

After blowing an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter to New York, the Mystics now must contend with another championship contender in Connecticut.

The Sun are deep, talented, and experienced, and they have a big edge over Washington. It starts with Thomas, an +800 contender for MVP. Only A’ja Wilson (+100) and reigning winner Breanna Stewart (+600) have better odds.

Without Delle Donne, the Mystics lack the star power needed to consistently win. Thus, another rebuild is in order. That shows in the Mystics vs Sun lines.

For WNBA odds, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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