The Atlanta Hawks travel to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat for Game 5 as they try to stave off elimination and extend the series to a Game 6 back in Atlanta. The Heat are one of three home favorites on Tuesday according to the NBA 2022 playoff odds.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns will have home-court advantage in their respective series with the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans. Both are locked at 2-2 heading into Game 5.
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat: Game 5 Analysis
The Miami Heat are one win away from punching their ticket to the second round of the playoffs ahead of their home meeting with the Atlanta Hawks.
The Heat were ruthless in their 110-86 win in Atlanta for Game 4 and continue to effectively shut down this Hawks offense on a near-nightly basis.
The concern for the Hawks is that the Heat done a terrific job of suffocating their offense and is only getting better in that department with each passing game.
Jimmy Butler has been having his way with Atlanta on offense, but he was ruled out for Game 5 due to right knee inflammation. His presence opens up the perimeter for the Heat’s plethora of shooters to get the looks they want from deep.
Aside from a fourth-quarter rally in Game 3 Atlanta hasn’t been able to apply any real sustained pressure on Miami. Despite being without point guard Kyle Lowry, the Heat continue to get solid contributions throughout the lineup.
Erik Spoelstra has altered his rotations each game in the series, which also makes things incredibly difficult for Nate McMillan and the Hawks to work out assignments and coverage given the variety of looks they’re facing.
Miami opened as 7½-point favorites but the line dropped to 4½ after Butler was ruled out on Tuesday afternoon. The Heat were +144 on the -2½ series handicap before Game 1 and could cash those tickets for bettors with a win at home.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies: Game 5 Analysis
The Memphis Grizzlies return home after a frustrating Game 4 that resulted in head coach Taylor Jenkins taking a direct shot at the officiating.
The Timberwolves, who ran out 119-118 winners, managed 40 free throw attempts in Game 4 as the Grizzlies starters battled foul trouble throughout. Jaren Jackson Jr. fouled out of the contest while Dillon Brooks, Xavier Tillman and Desmond Bane all finished with five fouls each.
“I have never seen a more inconsistent and arrogant officiated game game,” said Jenkins in his post-game press conference. “I’ll take whatever hits come my way.”
The Grizzlies will feel aggrieved regardless of officiating given the way they’ve largely dominated this series in key categories.
Minnesota continues to be heavily reliant on perimeter shooting to stay in the game. When that isn’t going for the Timberwolves and they aren’t able to generate the looks they want in transition, they’ve struggled to put up the numbers we were accustomed to seeing in the regular season.
Despite the series being level, the Grizzlies are still strong favorites both in Game 5 and in the series.
The Grizzlies are six-point favorites and are -310 to win the series. They’re also +140 to win the series in six games.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Phoenix Suns: Game 5 Analysis
The Phoenix Suns will look to assert themselves on their home floor in what’s becoming a tough and tense series with the New Orleans Pelicans.
The injury to Phoenix leading scorer Devin Booker has certainly proven to be the equalizer between these teams, but it’s the Suns’ defense that has been surprisingly lackluster in his absence.
Despite the apparent issues with the Suns, the market remains strong on them as they opened at -6½ for Game 5.
Much like the Memphis series, the market also remains equally bullish on Phoenix’s chances to advance. The Suns are -300 to advance, which is heavily weighted by the fact they have two of the remaining three games to be played on their home court.
Despite losing Game 2 at home, they were arguably the better team and there’s a fair argument to be made that this team owns the strongest home-court advantage in the league.
The 125-114 loss in Game 2 had an expected score of 111-107 in favor of the Suns based on Shot Quality metrics, so it’s understandable to see the market still strong in their support of the home team. In fact, based on Shot Quality projections, the Suns should be 3-1 up in this series and preparing for a close-out game on Tuesday.
Instead, they will simply try to edge one step closer to the second round against a Pelicans team that is gaining confidence with each passing matchup.