NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Houston, Orlando and Detroit, Top Choices to Land No. 1 pick

Smith, Holmgren and Banchero top Candidates for No. 1 pick in 2022 NBA Draft

Detroit, Houston, Orlando, Landed Best Odds in NBA Draft Lottery

There will be nervous general managers, coaches and fans as 14 teams are in contention to receive the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.

The Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic have the best odds to receive the first pick according to the NBA Draft Lottery odds. The order of the teams eliminated from the postseason will be decided on Tuesday night when the lottery is conducted. What are the NBA draft betting odds? Let’s look further.

Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero of Duke and Jabari Smith of Auburn are the top candidates to be the top pick. Smith comes in at +100, Holmgren at +190 and Banchero at +275.

The NBA Draft Lottery will air on ESPN beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Deja Vu Again

A year ago when the NBA Draft Lottery wrapped up, the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder finished with four of the top six picks.

On Tuesday night, those four teams have the best chance when it comes to the NBA Draft lottery odds.

Due to a change in the lottery system that took place starting with the 2019 draft, there are three teams each with 14 percent odds to get the first pick. Under the former system, the team with the worst record had a 25 percent chance of earning the top pick. The next two teams had odds of 19.9 and 15.6 percent.

Houston, Orlando and Detroit are the teams with a 14 percent chance to get the top selection followed by Oklahoma City at 12.5 percent and Indiana at 10.5 percent. This new system does make it hard to bet on the NBA Draft lottery or at least wager with some level of confidence on which team will secure the first pick.

In the 2021 draft, Detroit took Cade Cunningham first, followed by Jalen Green going second overall. Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes were picks No. 3 and 4. They fought it out for NBA Rookie of the Year honors. Orlando and Oklahoma City followed that up by picking Jalen Suggs and Josh Giddey.

Once the order is set, the mock drafts will start popping up much to the delight to those who bet on the NBA draft.

Draft not Helping Underachieving Lakers

There wasn’t a more disappointing and disjointed team during the 2021-22 NBA season than the Los Angeles Lakers.

Thanks to the blockbuster trade that brought Anthony Davis from New Orleans to Los Angeles, the Lakers won’t be keeping their first-round pick.

The Lakers have the eighth-best odds to earn the No. 1 pick which gives them a 6 percent probability of getting the No. 1 overall pick. Depending one where it falls, the move will be to either New Orleans or Memphis.

The Los Angeles Clippers’ first-round pick will be transferred to Oklahoma City as part of the Paul George trade. Many of the picks in the second half of the first round will also be on the move, although those selections won’t be impacted by the NBA Draft Lottery odds.

Freshmen to Dominate Draft

Since the NBA changed the rules and prohibited high schoolers from declaring for the draft, the top picks tended to be players leaving college after one season.

This year it should be no different. One mock draft had seven of the top nine selections being players who recently completed their freshman seasons.

Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren has moved to the top of the prospects eligible for the draft. Duke’s Paolo Banchero and Auburn’s Jabari Smith lead the list of freshmen who have declared for the draft. All three players stand somewhere from 6-foot-10 to 7-feet tall so, it will come down to which of these players fit best with the teams at the top of the draft.

The first non-freshman selected could very well be Purdue sophomore guard Jaden Ivey although Iowa sophomore forward Keegan Murray could go ahead of Ivey.

Top Pick not Always Top Choice

One thing to consider when discussing the NBA Draft lottery odds, none of the last four NBA Rookies of the Year were taken with the No. 1 overall pick.

The current winner Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors was picked fourth in the 2021 draft. LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets was selected third overall in 2020, the Memphis Grizzlies’ Ja Morant was the No. 2 choice in 2019. Luka Doncic, the No. 3 selection in 2018, which is the only one of the recent Rookie of the Year selection still alive in the quest for the NBA title.

The last player taken first overall to be the Rookie of the Year was Ben Simmons however, Simmons missed what was supposed to be his rookie season due to injury.

Karl-Anthony Towns, who was the Rookie of the Year following the 2015-16 season, is the last player picked first in the draft to follow up his college season by earning NBA Rookie of the Year honors the next year.

What to Know About the Draft

The 2022 NBA Draft will be held on June 23. Players who announced their intentions to be eligible for the draft have until June 1 to withdraw their names.

Unlike in past years, there won’t be top international players expected to go early in the draft. Australia’s Dyson Daniels is a potential lottery pick. His background includes some time playing in the NBA G-League.

Canadian Shaedon Sharpe didn’t play for Kentucky during the 2021-22 college season, however, there are some who think he might go in the top 5.

After the first 14 picks are decided in the lottery, the rest of the selections in the first round will be determined by their regular-season record and playoff finish.

Each of the first 32 players selected in the 2021 NBA Draft appeared in NBA games during the 2021-22 season. Only seven of the 60 players taken in last year’s draft have yet to make their NBA debut.

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