NBA Game 5 Betting Preview: Mavericks vs Warriors Odds

The Dallas Mavericks face near-impossible odds as they look to continue surviving against the Golden State Warriors. Despite winning Game 4, the Mavericks vs Warriors odds have Dallas at +250 to win this Thursday and at +1600 to come back and win the series. It has never been done before. What will it take for Dallas to be the first to do it in NBA history?

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Game 5 Info

• Game: Dallas Mavericks (52-30) vs Golden State Warriors (53-29)
• Location: Chase Center
• Day/Time: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
• Television: TNT

Can “Luka Magic” Lead a Mavericks Comeback?

We have all seen this theme, our hero faces impossible odds. They must face the might of a powerful empire with their ragtag band of rebels. After several moments of hardship including near-defeat, some Deus Ex Machina happens and the heroes win. Where will the Mavericks vs Warriors odds end up before tip off?

Luka Doncic is that hero and the Dallas Mavericks, which is a non-playoff team without him, must muster enough support to help him achieve that goal. The 23-year-old superstar was just named to the All-NBA 1st Team and after a rough first game in this series, he has lit up the Warriors for 37.3 points with a 458/400/810 shooting line.

In elimination games, Doncic has the all-time highest scoring average at 36.4 points. But basketball is a team game and the 2022 NBA playoffs have been won by teams that have played better as a whole. What the Deus Ex Machina Doncic needs is for his entire team to rise to his level of play. It would take more than one Jalen Brunson or Spencer Dinwiddie for Dallas to win Game 5 and more.

Warriors Will Start “For Real”

There is some evidence, albeit anecdotal, that the Golden State Warriors are just toying with the Dallas Mavericks. The Warriors “for real” slapped the Mavericks in Game 1. The NBA’s top home defense shut Luka Doncic and Dallas down, holding them to an abysmal 36 percent from the field and 87 points. This is why we analyse the game, basketball bettors want to know everything they can about the Mavericks vs Warriors odds. It’s your money!

To start Game 2, the Warriors fell asleep and let the Mavericks light them up for 72 first-half points. Dallas shot over 55 percent from three and led Golden State by double digits for most of the game. And then Golden State flipped the switch and held Dallas to just 45 second-half points en route to a comeback win.

If Golden State gets serious early, Game 5 will likely be another blowout. The Warriors have more depth than the Mavericks. This is a team whose bench leads the playoffs in scoring and one where complementary players like Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney have had serious impacts on the Golden State Warriors’ standings.

The Anatomy of An Improbable Comeback

We are still talking about Luka Doncic – and the Golden State Warriors, who became the first team in NBA Finals history to blow a 3-1 series lead. So if there is a perfect storm of outcomes for Dallas to be the first team to overcome an 0-3 deficit, it may involve a rising superstar in Doncic and a franchise with a history of being on the wrong side of it.

Dallas will need to play beyond their capabilities. In Game 4, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, and Maxi Kleber all scored in double digits. They combined to shoot 20-of-29 from the field, which more than made up for Doncic’s 38.5 field goal percentage. Doncic also had nine assists and Dallas is 5-2 in the playoffs when he has eight or more.

On the other side, Golden State is going to have to play below their abilities. Dallas will need to force the Warriors to become inefficient. If Golden State lost a key player or two as they did in the 2016 Finals with Draymond Green, it could also swing the series.

Mavericks vs Warriors Betting Trends

The total has gone under in four of the last six games with the Dallas Mavericks as road underdogs. The under has also hit 56.8 percent of the time when Golden State is the home favorite.

Golden State has won 15 of their last 20 games at home vs Dallas. The Mavericks are 10-20 when lined as an underdog on the road this season.

The Warriors’ +15.0 net rating at home is the best in the playoffs. Dallas has a -6.6 net rating when on the road.