NBA Outright Odds: Mid-Season Check-In on Women’s Title

The 2022 WNBA All-Star game is right around the corner, which means we’ve hit the midway point of the season. A number of teams have begun to solidify their position at the top of the league, while for others, it looks like they won’t be climbing out of the cellar anytime soon. At the start of the season, the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun were tied for the best women’s NBA outright odds to win the title.

With 20 games into the season, let’s now look at where each team started in the women’s NBA outright title odds ranking and where you might be able to find some value based on the mid-season rankings.

 Pre-Season WNBA Championship Odds

• Las Vegas Aces             +350
• Connecticut Sun           +350
• Seattle Storm                +500
• Chicago Sky                  +500
• Phoenix Mercury           +600
• Minnesota Lynx             +900
• Washington Mystics    +2000
• New York Liberty         +2500
• Los Angeles Sparks     +3000
• Dallas Wings               +5000
• Atlanta Dream             +8000
• Indiana Fever             +10000

Mid-Season WNBA Championship Odds

There are four teams that have a legit shot at winning the 2022 Championship; surprise-surprise, it’s the same teams that bookmakers have given the strongest women’s NBA outright odds. These are the same four teams that were atop the preseason title ranks, though they’ve shuffled position ever so slightly.

Las Vegas Aces +157

As previously mentioned, to start the season, the Las Vegas Aces were tied with Connecticut as the odds-on favorite to win the title. That tie did not last long as head coach Becky Hammon and company quickly moved into sole position as the favorite, thanks to a 13-2 start to the season. They have struggled as of late, losing four of their last six games, but we fully expect Hammon to right the ship and get her team back on track to their winning ways.

We see a deep playoff run for the Aces and, with their odds dropping from +350 to start the season to +157 now, it seems that the market agrees. If you like Las Vegas to win it all and have not already placed a future, then by all means grab this number now because the value is only going to go down.

 Chicago Sky +224

Winning back-to-back championships is not easy, yet we saw the Houston Comets three-peat back when they were a team in the ’90s, and the LA Sparks did it in 2001 and 2002. As the season progresses, the Chicago Sky has definitely looked more and more like a team that has the ability to run it back again this year. The Sky have won 11 of their last 13 games, including big wins over Las Vegas, Connecticut, and Washington. With Chicago currently sitting at +224, and looking like a well-oiled machine right now, the Sky is definitely a team I would look to buy on at this price.

 Seattle Storm +417

Seattle’s title odds have moved ever so slightly, going from +500 to start the season to +417. Their start to the season was a little up and down, but it seems as if they have caught their stride at the midpoint. With this being player Sue Bird’s final WNBA season, I don’t expect her to leave the game quietly. The Storm is only 1.5 games behind the Aces for the top spot in the Western Conference and is the only team that I could see coming out of the West other than Las Vegas. If you like the direction the Storm is heading, now is the time to bet on NBA futures.

 Connecticut Sun +418

Similar to the Las Vegas Aces, the Sun is a team that started the season red hot but has cooled down over the past 10 games, going 5-5 in that span. That has moved them back in the odds race quite a bit, going from tied as the favorite at +350 to +418 and sitting in fourth place as we near the All-Star break. Just like Seattle in the West, the Sun is the only team other than Chicago that we could see coming out of the East. That being said, Chicago has already beat Connecticut twice this season, and if you put them in a playoff series, we will take Chicago to win that too. The ship is going to sail on the Sun and their championship aspirations unless they can turn things around in the second half of the season.

 The Rest of the Field

The Phoenix Mercury started the season in the top-5 of the women’s NBA outright odds picture, and for good reason. Phoenix represented the West in the championship last season before losing to the Chicago Sky; however, without their star center Brittney Griner and with a new head coach in Vanessa Nygaard, things haven’t exactly gone as planned in The Valley.

The Washington Mystics have climbed up the rankings, going from +2000 in the preseason to +985 currently. My concern with Washington is the health of their star Elena Delle Donne. If she is able to remain healthy, I would definitely keep my eye on the Mystics and whether or not their odds begin to change. But with Delle Donne still in and out of the lineup to give her scheduled rest days, I’m not ready to consider Washington a true title contender quite yet.

For all other teams, if they ended up winning the title, it would quite literally be a miracle. The Indiana Fever is in the basement of the odds board at +24642 – yikes. The Minnesota Lynx, Atlanta Dream, Dallas Wings, New York Liberty, and Los Angeles Sparks aren’t much better. Better luck next year for each of these teams.