NBA Playoff Odds: Lakers Control Their Own Destiny

Mavs Suffer Another Brutal Loss

Play-In Drama Still Murky in the West

The Western Conference play-in race remains unclear as we approach the final week of the NBA regular season. Let’s take a look at the NBA Playoff Odds and see how things currently stand in both conferences.

The drama in the West will likely remain until the final day of the regular season with just 0.5 games separating the LA Clippers in the #5 seed and the New Orleans Pelicans in the #8 seed. Sandwiched between those teams are the defending champion Golden State Warriors in the #6 seed and the LA Lakers in the #7 seed.

The Lakers have gone from being outside the play-in picture to controlling their own destiny in their chase for the #5 seed in the space of two weeks. The return of LeBron James has elevated their play as well as their market rating, but a couple tough division games still remain on their schedule.

Their current road trip continues in Salt Lake City as they take on the Utah Jazz before a return to LA to face the Clippers.

The Lakers have not beaten the Clippers since Ty Lue took over the head coaching role from Doc Rivers, with the Clippers currently riding a 10-game win streak over their cross-town rivals. That game will be followed up by a meeting with the Phoenix Suns, who they would likely face in the first-round of the playoffs should they ultimately land that #5 seed.

The Clippers do face the possibility of falling into the play-in picture themselves should they be beaten by the Lakers in that crucial showdown on Wednesday night. Only two games remain after that meeting – one being against a tanking Portland Trail Blazers team and the final game against a Phoenix Suns team that will likely be resting all their starters if that #4 seed is secured.

The Warriors are also expected to win the remainder of their games, but have surrendered control of their own fate after that brutal loss at Denver against a Nuggets team missing Nikola Jokic.

A home showdown with the Thunder could at least guarantee them a spot in the play-in in their next game before they round out the season with road trips to Sacramento and Portland. The Kings should be locked into the #3 seed and will likely be resting some starters themselves so despite the teams road struggles the expectation remains that they will win out to close the regular season.

Mavs Losing Touch, Pelicans Surging

One team needing plenty of help is the Dallas Mavericks who now sit 1.0 games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the #10 seed.

The Mavs have lost seven of their last eight games, including a tough OT loss in Atlanta last time out. The Thunder own the tiebreaker should the teams finish with identical records, meaning they would need to win all their remaining games and hope that the Thunder drop at least two of their remaining three games.

Looking at the NBA scores and odds for their upcoming games it’s tough to see how the Thunder don’t steal the final play-in spot; a loss in Golden State is expected given the markets implied probability but games against the Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies should result in at least one win given both those teams are expected to sit most of their star players.

This would mean Luka Doncic misses out on the playoffs for the first time in his career and just a season after leading the Mavs to the Western Conference Finals. Oddsmakers currently have the Mavs listed at +1300 to make the playoffs, which highlights the uphill battle they face to get things right from here.

The Pelicans meanwhile are trending in the right direction as they recorded their seventh win in their last eight games last time out. The team should take advantage of facing high-profile teams that are locked into their seeding in the Kings, New York Knicks and Memphis Grizzlies, but a final day outing against the Minnesota Timberwolves could be a game of huge significance to both teams.

Assuming the teams currently above New Orleans do their part in ensuring the Pelicans are forced to go through the play-in tournament again we could see a case where the final day meeting against the Timberwolves could dictate who has homecourt in their play-in matchup.

Right now, Minnesota is -110 to make the playoffs and with a healthy Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns back in the rotation this arguably presents the best value remaining on the board. The Pelicans are -200 to make the playoffs, with the +180 on them to Miss the Playoffs representing some value given the nature of the play-in tournament.

Eastern Conference Picture is Set

Things are far less complicated in the East where the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls have locked themselves into the play-in tournament.

Seeding is the only thing that remains up in the air at the moment, but the chasing pack of Washington Wizards and Indiana Pacers are formally out of contention following both teams losses over the weekend.

The Toronto Raptors are the form team in the playoff chase having won eight of their last 10 games and they can still be found at +105 to make the playoffs.

While their schedule remains the toughest on paper they will likely benefit from the Boston Celtics (who they face twice) and Milwaukee Bucks sitting their starters. If they win their remaining games they could sneak into the 7/8 spots to ensure two chances at making the playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks remain the most inconsistent team in the league, with their .500 record reflective of the teams elite offense combined with a sub-par defense. The team is -110 to make the playoffs and value can be had given they boast the 2nd best adjusted offensive rating in the league since Quin Snyder took over as head coach.

That said, they face a daunting schedule to close out with a trip to Chicago on deck before games against the Celtics and 76ers await thereafter.

The Miami Heat are currently +800 to Miss the playoffs and if you like the Hawks and Raptors to ride their momentum into the play-in tournament there’s great value on fading a Miami team that has been bottom-six in the league all season in Offensive efficiency.

That’s all for our latest NBA Playoff Odds preview. We’ll check back in later this week to see how things stand and where the late value sits in the markets to help you with your NBA picks and parlays.
Follow us on Twitter


Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

Back to top button

pointspreads

WHO WILL WIN?

Submit your vote and view the results
Hey Again

vote all you can

pointspreads

PS-email

PS-email

Robot_subscription sombras
Subscribe to get
get_expert_img
Thank you for subscribing subscribed_icon