Grizzlies Must Recapture Form Without Morant
The latest Warriors vs Grizzlies betting odds would have you think otherwise, but the Memphis Grizzlies have held their own, even without superstar Ja Morant. This is a Grizzlies team that went 20-5 in the regular season without him on the lineup. That’s the best winning percentage in the league, and six of those wins against teams (including Golden State) remaining in the playoffs
Morant isn’t expected to play in Monday’s Game 4 after suffering a right knee injury in the last game,
The Grizzlies are nearly 20 points better with Morant during the playoffs. The NBA‘s Most Improved Player carried the team to a win over Golden State in Game 2. The injury in Game 3 occurred when the Grizzlies were already getting blown out. Now, the onus is on the likes of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane to lead the offense.
However, Jackson and Bane have combined to shoot just 37.5 percent from the field, although they have hit 18-of-40 (45 percent) from deep. Memphis’ inability to penetrate the Warriors’ interior defense makes it more predictable, and in order to beat Golden State, Memphis will have create a little chaos. Without its dynamic point guard, that will be harder to do.
- Team records: Memphis Grizzlies (61-30, second seed in West); Golden State Warriors (59-31, third seed in West).
- Date: Monday, May 9, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Chase Center, San Francisco
- Television/live stream: TNT
Warriors Have A Golden Opportunity
The Golden State Warriors will stay focused\, though their fans must already be dreaming of the conference finals. If Golden State meets its lofty betting line, the team will take a 3-1 lead in the series. This, theoretically, would mean a 95 percent chance of a series victory, though shades of the 2015-16 Finals still haunt the franchise. There’s no LeBron James on the other side, especially if Morant cannot return.
Golden State has all but shut down the Grizzlies (outside of Morant), and the team is healthy, which is something we couldn’t say in the past seasons. The injuries current consist of only Gary Payton II, who is a staunch defender off the bench. However, the team has dominated Memphis without him.
Playing in Chase Center, Golden State has a 33-9 record as a favorite, due to the NBA’s best defense. Golden State allows the second-fewest points and the lowest field goal percentage in the league. The team is heavily favorite (double digits) for a reason, and even if the Grizzlies play inspired basketball, the Warriors will not bend.
The Dillon Brooks Factor
Dillon Brooks will return to the Grizzlies after serving his one-game suspension for injuring Payton. A non-factor on offense, Brooks was shooting just 18.8 percent from the field. However, his ruggedness on defense could be something Memphis needs in this desperate hour.
If Brooks can be solid on offense, the Grizzlies’ betting odds could be golden. The team is 8-2 when he shoots 50 percent or better, 12-5 when he shoots better than his season average of 43.2 percent. However, his presence could also backfire on Memphis, as it may push the Warriors into a form of vengeance for a fallen teammate.
Either way, expect another physical game between these growing rivals, as the Warriors move in on the cornered Grizzlies, the most dangerous types of beasts.
Grizzlies vs Warriors Betting Trends
The Memphis Grizzlies are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games against the Golden State Warriors. However, the Grizzlies have also just won five of their last 19 trips to the Bay.
Golden State has won six straight home games, with the third-best cover rate at home (60.5 percent, 26-17-2). It finished the regular season in the top three in assist percentage, effective field goal percentage, and net rating.
The total has gone under in six of Memphis’s last nine road games. However, as a road underdog, 57.9 percent of Memphis’s games have gone over (11-8-2).
The Warriors’ Jordan Poole is averaging 26 points with a shooting split of 585/429/1000 or a 69.5 true shooting percentage (TS%). When Poole has a TS% at 60% or better, the Warriors are 28-12, including 5-0 in the playoffs.Follow us on Twitter