NBA Playoffs Game 6: Warriors vs Grizzlies Betting Analysis

Grizzlies Have Nothing to Lose

The Memphis Grizzlies “whooped that trick” as they turned Steph Curry’s comments against the Golden State Warriors. Memphis was up by as many as 52 points on Wednesday as they ran roughshod over the Warriors.

But winning in Memphis when the team was desperate is another thing. Now, the Grizzlies need to face the “real” Warriors, which should discount Game 5’s result for this Warriors vs Grizzlies betting analysis.

Memphis is one of the best road teams in the NBA with a 66.7 percent winning rate (62-31-0), which is second only to Phoenix. Against the spread (ATS), Memphis is the best with a 64.1 percent cover rate.

This team scores the fifth-most points on the road and grabs the most boards. The latter could be their key to beating the Warriors, whose “Death Lineup” is a small lineup.

More notably, the Grizzlies could enter the Chase Center with a “nothing to lose” mentality. The Grizzlies are even bigger underdogs per the NBA playoff betting odds and since Ja Morant was hurt, the team has been counted out. The team proved it is still a force to be reckoned with and arguably even better without its superstar.

Warriors Remain Vigilant Against Growing Grizzlies

When push came to shove, the Golden State Warriors let the Memphis Grizzlies have their way. As an older team, Golden State elected to count its losses and fight another day. Now returning to San Francisco, Golden State will become the team that has backers dreaming of another championship run.

The Warriors have the NBA’s best defense at home. This team allows the lowest field goal percentage and the second-fewest points. Golden State also has the second-best home winning percentage (78.3 percent) and is the third-best at covering the spread (59.1 percent).

Note: The Warriors best be wary as the Grizzlies have looked a little bit more dangerous since Morant was hurt. Golden State edged Memphis in Game 4 but the Warriors struggled to score and needed a massive fourth quarter from Curry to carry them through. This team will need to put up a championship-caliber performance to put Memphis away.

Will We See “Game 6 Klay”?

Klay Thompson can transform into a variety of mythical beings. But of all of them, “Game 6 Klay” is the most feared. Thompson, the Warriors’ second-best player when at his best, dropped 41 points on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the 2016 Conference Finals to help Golden State stave off elimination.

Two Conference Finals later, Thompson would light up Houston for 35 points with nine 3-pointers. And against the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 NBA Finals, Thompson would score 30 points though he would exit the game with an NBA injury. The five-time All-Star hits a new level in Game 6s with a lifetime average of 27.8 points on 53.8 shooting from deep.

Thompson has been quiet in this series against Memphis and is shooting just 38.1 percent from the field and scoring just 16.2 points. Bearing in mind what he showed against the Nuggets last series, Thompson still has plenty left in the tank and if he decides to revive the legend of Game 6 Klay, the Grizzlies are in trouble.

Grizzlies vs Warriors Betting Trends

The Memphis Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. A telling stat: the Golden State Warriors are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Memphis has also covered the spread in all but one game this series (4-1 ATS).

The total has gone over in eight of Golden State’s last 11 games, however, 56.1 percent of Golden State’s home games have seen the under (18-23-2) when lined as the favorite.

As an underdog, Memphis is 22-12-1 ATS  and 19-16 straight-up. It is 7-3 ATS and 6-4 in its last 10 games as an underdog against Golden State.

Memphis is 21-6 with Ja Morant out of the lineup. The team is 7.1 points better on defense when he is off the floor these NBA playoffs.

For NBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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