NBA Playoffs: Suns vs Mavericks Betting Preview, Game 3

Suns Aim For 11th in Row vs Mavericks

The last time the Phoenix Suns lost to the Dallas Mavericks was in November 2019. Devin Booker was the only player in that starting lineup that is still an active player on the current Suns roster.  Phoenix is unbeaten against Dallas with Chris Paul in the lineup, though there is a good chance the streak ends as we go through this Suns vs Mavericks betting preview.

Visiting Phoenix is lined at pick’em odds as the Western Conference semifinals shifts to Dallas for Game 3. The Mavericks had the fifth-best winning percentage at home this season at 29-12, but Phoenix was 32-9 on the road — the best mark in the NBA.

The NBA’s top-seeded team finished the regular season with the second-best net rating among road teams. Phoenix is also fully healthy with Paul and Booker combining to score 50 points on 52.9 percent shooting and 11.5 assists. As long as this dynamic duo is rolling, the Suns will be difficult to slow down.

Game Information

• Team records: Phoenix Suns (72-20, first seed in West); Dallas Mavericks (56-34, fourth seed in West).
• Date: Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
• Television/live stream: ESPN
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas

Mavericks Need Help for Doncic

We have some good news and bad news for the Dallas Mavericks. The good news is that Luka Doncic is still the best player in this series. The bad news is that, even with him averaging 40 points with a 62.5 effective field goal percentage, his team is down 0-2.

Doncic can do almost everything on offense and that’s why he has an absurd usage rate of 41.4 percent. But Phoenix will be happy to let him put up 40-point triple-doubles if it means the rest of the team is neutralized. This is a team game and one man, even if he is magical, can’t do it all by himself.

The Mavericks soundly defeated Utah thanks to the contributions of Jalen Brunson, Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith from the backcourt. They have largely been a non-factor in this series, with the former two combining to shoot just 16 of 44 (36.3 percent) from the floor. If Dallas hopes to improve on their 2022 NBA playoff odds, it needs to find a way around Phoenix’s defense.

Suns Taking D out of Dallas

Entering the playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks had the seventh-best defense in the NBA. At some point in the season, Dallas was a top-three defensive unit. The Mavericks allowed the second-lowest 3-point percentage in the league and the second-fewest points. It’s no surprise that the totals went under 60.2 percent of the time with them, the league’s highest ratio.

But against Phoenix, Dallas has been unable to stop the one-two punch of Paul and Booker. The guards have seamlessly facilitated the offense and have Phoenix shooting at an effective field goal rate of 64.1 percent. Phoenix is averaging 132.7 on the offensive rating, which is a whopping 21.5 points more than Dallas’ average as a road team in the regular season.

The Mavericks to find a way to disrupt the Suns but may have a rough time succeeding. Phoenix’s Kryptonite has been big, long, and athletic teams like Milwaukee. Even New Orleans managed to bother the Suns with their size and length. Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell could be that duo, but they can be liabilities on offense. At this point, though, Dallas should be willing to try.

Suns vs Mavericks Betting Trends

The Phoenix Suns have won 10 straight in the series and covered eight of these games against the Dallas Mavericks. The average margin of victory for Phoenix has been 8.9 points overall and five points when playing in Dallas.

Despite the Mavericks’ elite defense, the total has gone over in 10 of their last 15 games. All five of Dallas’ last five games against a Pacific Division opponent have also gone over. In Phoenix’s case, six of their eight playoff games have also gone over.

As a home team, Dallas has the third-best cover rate in the NBA at 59.5 percent (25-17-2).  Phoenix has a 61.4 percent cover rate as a road team (27-17), which ranks fifth in the league.

The Mavericks have only overcome a 2-0 series deficit in a seven-game series once: in 2005 versus Houston. As such, the Phoenix Suns’ betting odds have them winning this series at 88.7 percent.