NBA Playoffs Zig Zag Theory: Old System Showing Slight Profit

The NBA Playoffs Zig Zag Theory is one of the oldest NBA betting systems around. Its simplicity and number of plays made it a favorite method of NBA bettors. But like many betting systems, such as the NFL’s Monday Night Home Underdog, its popularity has led to a decline in results.

As more bettors follow a system, the sportsbook makes adjustments. Underdogs that were getting four or five points are now getting three. Favorites are laying an extra point or more than in the past.

The NBA Playoffs Zig Zag Theory is simple to use. Simply bet on the team that lost the last game in a playoff series. That’s all there is to it. You don’t have to worry about the NBA scores and standings. Just bet the team that is coming off a loss.

It gives you a play in all games except the opening game of any series. The system reached its peak in the 1980s and 1990s when it was a solid money-making wager. But since the 2002-03 playoffs, the method is 727-705-17, which is 50.8%. It’s above 50%, but not enough to make it a profitable situation.

So far this year, the method is 37-29-1 (56.1%) against the NBA spreads, good for a slight profit. Last season it was 40-34 (54.1%), so it’s had back-to-back winning years.

Favorites Getting the Job Done

While the NBA Playoffs Zig Zag Theory originally was to just bet the losing team, recent years have seen a new trend develop. That’s to bet the losing team when they are favored the next game. Adding this requirement changes the long-term since 2002-03 to 356-281-10 ATS, which is 55.9%. That’s not a bad record at all for such a simple method. Favorites of 5 or more points have gone 188-145-4 (56.5%), so there’s a slight improvement.

This season, favorites after a loss in the playoffs have been stellar, going 22-13-0 (62.9%) against the spread. These teams are 25-10 straight-up, so they’re bouncing back pretty well after a setback.

You can apply one more filter to boost your winning percentage a bit more. If you look for favorites who lost last game as a favorite your results will improve a bit. Going back to 2002-03, favorites off a loss as a favorite have gone 177-128-6 (58%). These teams are 229-82 straight-up.

The past two seasons have seen these favorites off a loss go 25-14 (64.1%) against the spread, including 11-7 this season.

The NBA Playoffs Zig Zag Theory may not be what it once was in terms of winning percentage. But if used selectively it can still be a valuable addition to any handicapper’s toolbox.

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