Nuggets vs Timberwolves Betting Preview

Nuggets Small Road Favorites in Game 3

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves betting preview sees the Nuggets as small road favorites for Game 3. Denver opened as 2-point favorites and the total is 223. Denver is -130 on the moneyline after winning the first two games at home. The Nuggets were 11 games better than Minnesota in the NBA regular season NBA standings.

The Timberwolves had one strong quarter in Game 2. But that wasn’t nearly enough against Denver, which outscored Minnesota by at least six points in the other three quarters. Still, it took a Denver comeback in the fourth quarter to get the home victory.

Offensively, the Timberwolves were solid in Game 2. Minnesota hit 50.6% of its shots and were 45.2% from 3-point range. The problem is that Denver was even better. The Nuggets were 54.1% from the field and 45.4% from 3-point range. Minnesota has to play better defense or this series will be over in two more games.

Minnesota did a much better job on the boards in Game 2, which is a major factor in the game being much closer. After being outrebounded by 16 in Game 1, Denver had just a one-rebound edge in the second game. Denver attempted just three more field goals than Minnesota. The Nuggets attempted nine more shots in the opening game.

Both team’s lack of depth showed a bit in Game 2. Only eight players played in the game for each team. The Timberwolves received 17 points from their reserves, while the Nuggets’ bench tallied 19 points. Fatigue could set in a bit as the series progresses.

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves betting preview notes that teams who scored at least 113 points and lost in the playoffs are 50-39 ATS the next game. That dates back to the 2003 NBA playoffs. They’ve gone 31-24 ATS at home and 23-18 when underdogs.

Nuggets logo Nuggets vs Timberwolves Timberwolves logo

Date & Time:
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Streaming: ESPN

Small Dogs Off 2 Losses

The Timberwolves do have one situational edge in their favor. An NBA betting analysis shows playoff home underdogs who lost the previous two games on the road are 19-15 straight-up and 21-13 ATS when made a home underdog of 3.5 points or less. Being a small underdog lets you know oddsmakers believe they have a chance of being competitive. They’ve lived up to those expectations for the most part.

Shutting Down Towns

Denver has done a solid job defending Karl-Anthony Towns, who is just a combined 8 for 27 from the field. He’s scored 10 and 11 points in the first two games, about half his season average. Towns has made a combined nine turnovers and is -20 through the first two games.

Handicapping Game 3

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves betting preview notes that Denver isn’t a great road team. The Nuggets were just 19-22 away from this season. But the Timberwolves aren’t a great home team. Minnesota was 23-19 at home and you’d like to see a few more wins.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have shown they can play with Denver. But you have to hope their intensity is still high after letting Game 2 get away from them. If the Timberwolves can stop Denver’s 3-point shooters a bit, it will go a long way. The Nuggets hit better than 40% in each of the first two games.

Denver just has to keep doing what they’ve done in the first two games. The Nuggets can’t afford to get complacent and need to maintain their intensity. Putting the Timberwolves away early would allow them a chance to rest a bit for the next series. On the other hand, if the Timberwolves manage to turn things around and win some games, the Nuggets vs Timberwolves series could become a real nail-biter.

But for Minnesota, it’s pretty much now or never to make this a series. The Timberwolves aren’t going to come back from a 3-0 deficit. They may be able to bounce back from a 2-0 deficit with the next two games at home. If the ‘Wolves don’t get the win in Game 3, it will be tough to back them in Game 4, as they could very well pack it in.

The spread is a bit lower than I would have liked considering the margins of the first two games. But the Timberwolves should rise up and play their best game of the series in this one. Minnesota is probably the right side in this one as a small home underdog.


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