Nuggets vs Timberwolves Odds: Denver Small Favorites to Sweep
Denver Takes Commanding 3-0 Lead on Friday

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves odds for Game 4 show Denver favored by 3 points. The Nuggets are -155 on the moneyline and the total for this one is 225.
The Timberwolves played a better game Friday and had their chances in the fourth quarter. But Minnesota couldn’t make the big plays when it needed them most. The result was a 122-113 Denver victory and a chance for the Nuggets to sweep on Sunday.
Denver was strong from the field in Game 3, hitting 57.1% of its shots. The Nuggets were 13 for 32 (40.6%) from 3-point range, which negated a huge edge for the Timberwolves at the foul line. Minnesota attempted 35 free throws to 15 for Denver.
The biggest question for this game is did Minnesota give its best shot on Friday? If so, the Timberwolves could just mail it in for this game. It’s going to come down to the mindset of the Timberwolves. It’s easy to see why Minnesota would be discouraged. The Nuggets have won the first three games, going 3-0 against the NBA betting lines. The last two margins of victory have been nine points. So the Timberwolves aren’t completely being blown out. But instead they’ve had opportunities in the fourth quarter and haven’t capitalized.
The Nuggets were well-balanced in Game 3, getting at least 14 points from all five starters. Michael Porter led Denver with 25 points, Nikola Jokic scored 20 and Jamal Murray had 18. The three main reserves off the bench for Denver – Jeff Green, Bruce Brown and Christian Braun – each scored at least eight points. Deandre Jordan was the only Denver player to not score and he played less than a minute. Denver had a 29-10 scoring edge off the bench.
Nuggets Buck Foul Line Trend
Minnesota’s free throw disparity in the postseason is a bit unprecedented. The Timberwolves became the first playoff team to shoot at least 35 free throws when their opponent shot fewer than 15 since the start of the 2002-03 playoffs. It doesn’t happen all that often during the regular season. Since 2017-18, there have been 19 games where one team shot at least 35 foul shots when their opponent had fewer than 15. Prior to Denver’s win, the teams on the short end of the free throws were just 1-17 straight-up. Denver joined the 2020 Memphis Grizzlies as the only teams to win when facing the disparity.
Jokic’s Triple Double
Jokic’s triple double was the seventh of his career in the playoffs. He remained fourth among active players, trailing LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Draymond Green. He’s 10th all-time, with Magic Johnson the all-time leader with 30.
Denver’s Shots are Falling
The Nuggets are now second in the NBA playoffs in shooting percentage this season. Denver is hitting 52.1% of its field goals, trailing just Miami. Teams aren’t going to lose many games against the NBA point spread when shooting that well.
Handicapping Game 4
The Nuggets vs Timberwolves odds seem a bit on the low side after what Denver has done through the first three games. Denver is 3-0 ATS, including a half-point cover in Game 2, when it had to rally in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets have outscored Minnesota in eight of the 12 quarters, three have been even and Minnesota held a scoring advantage in just one quarter. That makes it tough to want to back the Timberwolves.
The difference in the series so far has been evident, both in the stats and for those watching. The Timberwolves simply have to play better defense. Denver is 54.1% and 57.1% from the field the last two games. The Timberwolves have scored 111 and 113 points and lost both games. During the regular season, Minnesota was 30-17 and 28-18-1 ATS when scoring 113 or more points.
The Nuggets vs Timberwolves odds on the total also seem a bit on the low side. Especially if Minnesota isn’t going to play defense. But teams who have scored 120 or more points in back-to-back playoff games are just 16-28 in totals. So the trends definitely point to the under in this situation. But will the Timberwolves get the message?
Minnesota’s state of mind makes this one a tough side to call. The fact that the last two games were within reach might make getting up mentally for Game 4 a tough task. So the play for this one is likely to follow the under trend the Nuggets are in and going against the grain with the under 225.