Pelicans vs Nuggets Betting Preview: Denver Seeking Home Comforts

Pelicans Look for Quick Revenge

Best in the West Return Home

The Denver Nuggets return to Ball Arena as they play host to the New Orleans Pelicans just a week after stealing a one-point road win against this team. Let’s dive into our Pelicans vs Nuggets Betting Preview and see how these teams project to match up.

The Nuggets went 1-2 straight up and against-the-spread (ATS) on their recent three-game road trip, which started with a 99-98 win in New Orleans. Jamal Murray is the only player listed as questionable on the injury report for Denver for this matchup.

Meanwhile, New Orleans will have Brandon Ingram available for this one as he continues to work his way back from a long-term absence. CJ McCollum also sat out last game but has been listed as available.

The Nuggets have opened as 7.5-point home favorites in this one, with the teams splitting their two games in Denver last season.

Pelicans logo Pelicans vs Nuggets Nuggets logo

Date & Time:
Location: Ball Arena

Pelicans Offense Continues to Struggle

Things were always going to be difficult for Willie Green and his team after losing Zion Williamson to a hamstring strain.

The fact they had to play a majority of those games with Ingram also sidelined meant it was inevitable that the team was going to experience some sort of offensive slump. Over the past month the team has gone 8-11 straight up, recording a -1.7 efficiency differential and languishing in the bottom third of the league on offense.

The Pelicans rank 26th in points per 100 possessions, 23rd in Effective Field Goal percentage and 27th in offensive turnover percentage since Christmas Day. They’ve averaged just 108.1 points per game in their last six road outings.

While Ingram’s return will undoubtedly provide a spark in due time this doesn’t seem the best matchup for them to rediscover their scoring touch given how Denver has performed at home this season. The Pelicans are just 5-10 (33.3%) ATS as road underdogs this season – only four teams have a worse ATS win rate in that spot this season.

Despite their offensive struggles however, the team is 11-4 on full game Over/Unders as road underdogs this season which is the highest Overs win percentage in the league for teams in that spot. A lot of that has been due to an increase in pace and possession on the road, something which they could again feature in Denver.

Nuggets Remain Home Juggernaut

The Denver Nuggets offense is quite literally in a league of its own when playing in front of their home fans.

Mike Malone’s squad owns a 123.3 points per 100 possession average on their home floor making them comfortably the best offensive efficiency in the league. Their 60.6% effective field goal average is on pace for an NBA record and their +12.2 point differential at home is second only to a Memphis squad who has been blowing teams out at home thanks to their elite defense.

While Denver’s defense came under criticism to start the season they’ve started to right that ship in a big way of late as well when playing at home. They are 9th in opponent points per possession allowed and 7th in opponent EFG%.

Their starting lineup ranks in the 86th percentile in point differential and their half court offense is among the best in the league, averaging 1.08 points per play on half court sets.

The NBA injury report looks good for them as well, with Michael Porter Jr not listed and Murray trending towards playing despite officially having a questionable tag next to his name.

The Nuggets continue to dominate the NBA point spread at home as well, going 15-10-1 ATS as the home team. They’re also 7-4 ATS this season when playing with a rest advantage, which will be the case tonight having had an extra night off since they last took the floor.

Despite the big number it’s difficult to bet against the Nuggets at home and I’d expect a strong offensive showing from them once again here. The Pelicans offense simply isn’t equipped to keep up at the moment and they’ll have a tough time staying around.

That’s all for our Pelicans vs Nuggets Betting Preview. Be sure to check back again tomorrow for more NBA previews and recaps.
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