Southeast Division Odds: Can the Hawks Swoop Late?
Heat Running Out of Steam

Hawks Worth Long Shot Price
The Atlanta Hawks remain 1.5 games behind the Miami Heat in the race for the Southeast Division title, but they have a far better chance than their current odds suggest. Let’s take a look at the Southeast Division Odds to see if we can find some value in the final few week of the NBA season.
Miami have spent the majority of the season leading the division despite playing at a level that is well below what many projected from them.
The Heat are 22nd in adjusted net rating this season; they rank 25th in adjusted offensive rating and have had to rely on a defense that ranks 9th in order to keep them competitive.
The constant disruptions to their starting lineup and rotations have certainly played their part, but the reality of this offense has come to the fore this season and it’s clear that they need more playmaking and shot creating outside of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro.
Meanwhile, things haven’t really been much better for an Atlanta Hawks team that was expected to take a step forward this season.
After firing head coach Nate McMillan the team remains at .500 with a 38-38 record, which includes going 8-8 since the arrival of current head coach Quin Snyder.
The team ranks 17th in adjusted net rating and are seemingly built the opposite of their division rivals – they are 9th in adjusted offensive rating but sit 22nd in adjusted defensive rating. That defense has resulted in some horrible losses in the clutch, including blowing a double-digit lead in Miami earlier in the month.
Despite all that however, they may have enough offense to give them a shot at stealing the division if Miami begin to prioritise health for their superstars.
Heat Need 3 More Wins
Three is the magic number for Miami if they’re to guarantee a division title and looking at their schedule it’s easy to see why they’re -800 favorites to get the job done.
Erik Spoelstra’s side only has one playoff team left on their schedule and that’s a road game at the Philadelphia 76ers, who themselves need to still lock up the #3 seed.
Over the past two weeks the Heat are 2-4 with a -9.2 point differential. They remain bottom-10 in points per possession, Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG%) and Turnover percentage. What’s more worrying however is their usually rock-steady defense has also come undone.
The team is 26th in opponent points per possession and 25th in opponent EFG% while also being bottom-10 in opponent second chance opportunities. Of the teams remaining on their schedule, only the Washington Wizards rank worse defensively and no team is worse on offense.
The fact they own the tiebreaker with the Hawks is what gives them the edge with so few games remaining and makes it tough for Atlanta to make up the ground to leapfrog them.
That said, they still have three road games left and are 15-23 on their travels this season. Their home games won’t be straightforward either, with a desperate Dallas Mavericks team next up and then a young Orlando Magic team intent on playing out the full schedule.
While the odds are deservedly in their favor it’s not a formality that they get the job done.
Atlanta Needs to Run the Table
The Atlanta Hawks have put themselves in a tough situation by blowing more clutch games than any team in the league – quite literally the polar opposite to what Miami has achieved in one possession games this season.
While coach Snyder hasn’t been able to rectify the team’s defensive issues as yet he has managed to take this offense to another level.
Over the past two weeks they are 2nd in points per possession, 3rd in Shot Quality per possession and are 1st in Offensive Rebounding percentage. They also remain a top-5 team in Free Throw rate and are doing a terrific job of not fouling shooters on the defensive end of the floor.
Atlanta has two tough road games coming up at Brooklyn and Chicago, with both teams needing wins in their respective races for seeding. If their offense is able to carry them through those games there’s a very realistic chance they sweep the board in their remaining games given what’s left outside of those two road outings.
They host a slumping Washington team and then finish with games against the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics; both of whom will be resting their starters to close out the season.
A home showdown with the Mavericks before all that could be crucial given that Dallas face the Heat prior to that game. If the Mavs can steal a win in Miami and the Hawks can then dispatch of their Western Conference rivals at home there’s every reason to believe they are live to snatch division honors.
The NBA odds are likely to instil the Hawks as favorites in all but one of their remaining games, and even then they could be favored at Chicago depending on how things shake up over the next week. Given you can get +1800 on them to win the division right now there’s certainly fair reasoning to say they could be a value play for the Southeast Division Odds.
Keep on eye on the NBA betting lines for the Heat games to close out. While the long shot price on Atlanta is tempting the best approach to maximise your return might be to fade the Heat in their remaining road games.
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