Sun vs Lynx Odds: Can Connecticut Avoid First-Round Flame-Out?

Sun hit the road for winner-take-all Game 3

It’ll be win-or-go-home for the third-seeded Connecticut Sun and sixth-seeded Minnesota Lynx when the teams meet in a decisive Game 3 on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET) at the Target Center.

After opening as a 4.5-point favorite, Connecticut is now up to -5.5 (-105) and -210 to win outright. Meanwhile, Minnesota is +5.5 (-115) on the spread and +180 on the moneyline. The projected total is 158 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

The winner will advance to the second round of the WNBA playoffs against either the second-seeded New York Liberty or Washington Mystics. Who will it be? Read on as we break down the matchup in our Sun vs Lynx odds preview.

🏀 Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx 🏀

Location: Target Center; Minneapolis
Streaming: ESPN

Betting Trends

The Connecticut Sun are 23-17-1 against the spread, including 11-7-1 on the road. The Minnesota Lynx, meanwhile, are 22-19-1 ATS but just 9-10-1 at home. The teams have gone Under the projected total in four of their six meetings this season, including Games 1 and 2. That’s important to remember when analyzing the Sun vs Lynx odds.

Sun Hoping to Avoid Flaming Out

The Connecticut Sun have been remarkably consistent this season. Despite losing All-Star center Brionna Jones to a season-ending Achillies injury, they’ve maintained their place right alongside the WNBA’s two “Super Teams,” the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty. However, after dropping Game 2 at home, Connecticut is now facing elimination.

It’s not time to panic. But the Sun (27-13) also don’t have any room for error. Can they get the job done?

Much of that will depend on — who else? — forward Alyssa Thomas. Thomas has continued her brilliant play from the regular season, where she averaged 15.5 points, an WNBA-best 9.9 rebounds and 7.9 assists to cement herself as an MVP finalist. But the Minnesota Lynx, fueled by forward Napheesa Collier, have largely overcome her contributions. At least they did in Game 2, when they scratched out an 82-75 win at Mohegan Sun Arena to force a pivotal Game 3.

Thomas contributed 26 points, eight rebounds and six assists. But the Sun, the WNBA’s stingiest defensive team, also allowed 82 points on 47.8% shooting. It’s on Thomas, a four-time All-Star and one of the best WNBA players, to set the tone.

Lynx Playing with House Money

After an 0-6 start to the season, the Minnesota Lynx now have a chance to win their first playoff series since 2017, when they captured their most recent WNBA title. It’s a peculiar route to take, but such is the case for a franchise that was ready to rebuild following the departures of WNBA icons Maya Moore and Sylvia Fowles.

At 19-21 — one of four sub-.500 teams to make the playoffs — the Lynx remain an WNBA title longshot at +12000, per WNBA odds. But the Lynx do have Collier, a three-time All-Star, guard Kayla McBride and a promising cast of rookies that includes No. 2 overall pick Diamond Miller and second-rounder Dorka Juhasz.

McBride and Collier did much of the damage in Game 2, combining for 54 points (65.8% of the team’s scoring) on 22-of-42 shooting. Nobody else on the Lynx attempted more than eight field goals.

As obvious as it sounds, Minnesota’s playoff hopes rest on its two veterans. The supporting cast is strong — Juhasz, for example, chipped in six points, six assists, five rebounds and two steals in Game 2 — but the Lynx won’t go anywhere without Collier and McBride stepping up.

Collier’s most recent performance (26 points and 13 rebounds) was particularly encouraging, as she’s been dealing with back pain. Keep that in mind when assessing the Sun vs Lynx odds.

Handicapping the Game

The Lynx are suddenly in the driver’s seat, holding homecourt advantage in a win-or-go-home Game 3. Connecticut has played well away from Mohegan Sun Arena, going 14-6 on the road, including 2-0 against the Lynx. Now, the stakes are different.

Is it time to write off the Sun? Not quite. Connecticut is still the deeper, more talented team, and with Thomas playing as well as she has, they’re more than capable of taking care of business. This WNBA matchup might be a tad big, but you could do worse than trusting Connecticut to advance.

For WNBA betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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