Thunder vs Pelicans Odds: New Orleans Ready to Run It Back
Pelicans Hope to Lean on Experience
Thunder Begin New Chapter
The Oklahoma City Thunder took a big leap forward in their rebuilding process as they get the opportunity to face the New Orleans Pelicans in the play-in tournament. Let’s dive into the Thunder vs Pelicans Odds and see how these teams stack up ahead of their win-or-go-home showdown.
The Thunder finished the regular season as one of the best ATS teams in the league, going 45-34-3 (57%) for bettors. That was despite finishing the season 2-8 (20%) ATS over their last 10 games as the team struggled to cope with covering large spreads as favorites.
That won’t be the case here though, with the NBA betting lines opening them as 5.5-point underdogs. The Thunder are 29-21-3 (58%) ATS as underdogs this season, with an average margin of -2.0 points.
The Pelicans have played themselves into form at the right time of the season once again and Willie Green will be hoping last seasons play-in experience can be the pivotal difference in helping them navigate their way through this season’s tournament.
New Orleans went 8-3-1 (66.7%) ATS over their final 11 games of the season. They were 4-1-1 (66.7%) ATS at home in that stretch.
The full game total for this game is currently set at 228.0 points after early market support pushed this down from its opening number of 230.5 points.
OKC Have Nothing to Lose
Sometimes to biggest advantage in a one-game elimination format is to be able to play without pressure or expectation, and that’s exactly where the Thunder sits in this game.
The team has already overachieved this season in terms of results and final position, but that doesn’t mean their talent level is significantly below that of the other teams involved in the play-in tournament.
The on-court growth of Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has simply accelerated their timeline and the opportunity for this young core to play in this environment will only prove beneficial for them going forward.
While the New Orleans Pelicans did win the season series 3-1 it was the Thunder who won the most recent meeting between these teams 110-96. That game was also played in this arena.
One area of importance will be the pace of play and if the Thunder are able to play downhill and in transition, they can swing momentum in a big way. OKC ranks 2nd in defensive Turnover percentage and their active hands on defense could be problematic for a Pelicans team that is 22nd in turnover rate this season.
The Thunder have been a top-3 team in the pace of play all season and their success is built on being able to play in transition as opposed to facing a set defense. If they can find a way to keep this game uptempo they’ll be a live underdog.
Pelicans Defense Stands Tall
The biggest edge in this game might come down to which teams defense can implement their will for the longest duration and if that’s the case there’s only one winner.
The Pelicans finished 6th in Adjusted Defensive Rating (112.5) this season and they’ve demonstrated multiple times this season that they have the bodies and schemes to slow down this Thunder offense.
New Orleans ranks 1st in Opponent 3-point percentage and was 8th in Opponent Rim frequency, which are two key areas in nullifying OKC’s offensive threat. Their length and size make it difficult for the Thunder to penetrate the paint and when the team isn’t getting into the paint it limits their outside threat drastically given their reliance on catch-and-shoot opportunities beyond the arc.
While the team remains above-average as a 3-point threat they are one of the worst off the dribble 3-point shooting teams in the league and that’s what can turn them one-dimensional against this Pelicans defense. Couple that with the fact the Pelicans are top-5 in opponent Offensive Rebounding percentage and things become tough for OKC in a pressure environment to be able to score consistently.
By contrast, the Thunder are 28th in opponent Offensive Rebounding percentage and the Pelicans are top-10 in securing second chance opportunities.
These differences become magnified in this environment and the inexperience for OKC will likely show down the stretch if they’re being frustrated on offense and exploited on defense. Add in the fact that Brandon Ingram is playing at arguably his best level and that his scoring ranks among the best NBA player stats over the past month and it’s easy to see why New Orleans is expected to take care of business here.
This current line does show value toward OKC on its face, but diving into the disparity in halfcourt execution between the two and factoring in the likely pace that will favor New Orleans it’s hard to not want to lay the points with the home team here.
That’s all for our Thunder vs Pelicans Odds preview. Be sure to check out all our play-in and playoff series previews here at PointSpreads.com.
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