Timberwolves at Nuggets Odds: Denver Huge Favorites to End Series
Denver Close to Double-Digit Favorites Over Minnesota
The Timberwolves at Nuggets odds show that Denver is favored by 9.5 points in Tuesday night’s Game 5 at Ball Arena. Minnesota forced another game with a 114-106 overtime victory Sunday night. The total on the game is 221.5 and the Nuggets are -440 on the moneyline. The Timberwolves are +338.
Obviously it was Minnesota’s best game of the series. But it’s not as though the Timberwolves haven’t played Denver close in two of the three losses. The NBA scores show the Nuggets with a 122-113 win and a 120-111 victory. Minnesota was in both those games in the fourth quarter.
Anthony Edwards came up big for Minnesota last time out with 34 points, six rebounds and five assists. The Timberwolves needed somebody to pick up the slack and he was up to the challenge.
The Nuggets knew they just needed a split in Minnesota to give them a chance to end the series at home. So Denver probably isn’t too disappointed to be returning home 3-1.
History Says Denver in Good Spot
If past history is any indication, this is a good spot for the Nuggets. Playoff home favorites of 9 or more points are 16-7 against the spread when coming off a loss as an away favorite. The situation doesn’t happen often. But it has been one worth following when it does pop up. All favorites of 9 or more points have been decent wagers since the start of the 2002-03 playoffs. These teams are 117-85-2 (57.9%) against the number. These same games have seen total go 87-115-2 (43.1%). The 9.5-point favorites are 3-1 ATS this year, which makes the Timberwolves at Nuggets odds a bit tempting. These same games have gone 1-3 in totals.
Timberwolves Overcome Major Meltdown
There was no reason for the last game to go to overtime to begin with. After an Edwards jumper, Minnesota led 96-84 with 2:52 remaining in regulation. Denver outscored the Timberwolves 12-0 the rest of the way to force the extra session. Four 3-pointers by the Timberwolves in overtime allowed Minnesota to take the win.
Jokic Scores Plenty, Allows More
Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 43 points in Game 4. But he also allowed a ‘game-worse’ -14 for the Nuggets. No other player was worse than -8. Jokic isn’t paid for his defense, but Denver has to be better when he’s on the floor. Jokic’s rating through the first three games was a +28.
Handicapping Game 5
The Timberwolves at Nuggets odds of Denver -9.5 is a bit on the high side at first glance. Only one of Denver’s three wins has been by more than double-digits. So a line of Denver -9 was probably expected. But there’s good reason for this line to be on the high side. The Nuggets didn’t play with the same intensity we saw in the first three games. Denver would be the first to say it deserved to lose Game 4. But that probably won’t be the case in Game 5.
Minnesota had a 14-10 edge in offensive rebounds last game, the first time that’s happened all series. The Timberwolves will likely make a strong effort to do the same. But they should find things a bit different against a motivated Denver team.
This is one of two contests on the NBA games schedule where the home team holds a 3-1 edge. It’s hard to imagine either of them losing, as both are huge favorites. The last thing the Nuggets want is for another trip to Minnesota.
The Timberwolves were able to avoid the sweep with the victory in Game 4. But it’s hard to imagine Minnesota doing any more than that. The point spread is a lofty one, although it’s hard to ignore the trends of how well the large favorites have done. If you’re going to play this game, the Nuggets look like the side you want to be on.
