WNBA Betting Preview: Dream vs Aces Odds

The Las Vegas Aces came out of the All-Star break on a tear, beating the New York Liberty twice and the Connecticut Sun. Their offense looks as if it’s returned to its early-season form, putting up a boatload of points in their last three games. This matchup tonight between the Dream vs. Aces is a much bigger, more important game for Atlanta if they want to remain in the playoff hunt.

Game Information

• • Game: Atlanta Dream (11-14) at Las Vegas Aces (18-7)
  • Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena
  • Day/Time: Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET

The Atlanta Dream came into the second half of the season with two straight losses to Chicago and Connecticut. They then followed that up with an impressive 85-75 road win over the Phoenix Mercury, despite being six-point underdogs. Atlanta was also without its star rookie Rhyne Howard who was out with a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable against Vegas. In that win, the Dream showed just how feisty they can be on the boards, outrebounding the Mercury 43-28. They’ll need a similar performance on Tuesday if they want to hang with the Aces who are the top team in the Western Conference.

WNBA odds have the Aces priced as -12.5 point favorites over the Dream, and while they beat Atlanta by 23 in their first meeting back in early May, this is too many points to be laying against a team that is fighting to keep their playoff spot. In terms of motivation for this Dream vs. Aces game, Atlanta should come into this one as the more motivated team. They currently sit sixth in the overall standings, which might seem okay seeing as the top eight seeds make the playoffs; however, seeds six through 11 are all within two games of each other, meaning every win matters from here on out for each of those six teams.

For Vegas, they are comfortably in the playoffs, unless they absolutely crash and burn, which we do not see is the case. Their motivation comes from wanting to build momentum going into the postseason, but in terms of this specific game, the Aces aren’t playing for much. One of the big narratives surrounding the Aces this season is their lack of depth. Head coach Becky Hammon has played her starter’s heavy minutes all season and doesn’t dip very far into her reserves. We could see her wanting to get her bench more playing time and experience over these last 11 games. That means if Vegas is up big in the fourth quarter, we could see those players getting more minutes and a backdoor cover happening for Atlanta. Plus, despite being one of the WNBA’s best teams, the Aces have also struggled to cover this season, going 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games.

Offensively, Atlanta has been clicking over its last five games, ranking in the top five in both field goal percentage and three-point percentage; and while their record over that recent span of games hasn’t translated to many wins (2-3), they’ve played against four of the top five defenses in the league.

For Vegas, it’s their offense that wins them games. With Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson, Dearica Hamby, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young in the starting lineup, there is no shortage of points being put on the board for the Aces. In fact, Vegas owns the league’s best offensive rating by nearly 10 points (118.3) over their last five games. Couple the Dream’s efficient offense with the Aces’ high-powered offense and I like this game to go over the total of 172.5.

Following this Dream vs Aces matchup, Atlanta will continue its west coast road trip with games in LA and Seattle. Meanwhile, the Aces will remain at home and welcome Indiana and LA to close out the week.