The Seattle Storm welcome the Washington Mystics into Climate Pledge Arena on Thursday for the first round of the WNBA playoffs. Both teams enter the postseason with the exact same 22-14 record. Seattle has been solid at home this season, sporting a 13-5 record while the Mystics are 10-8 on the road. The Mystic vs Storm Series Odds for this game is currently priced at Seattle -4.5. The total has moved down from 159.5 to 158.5. The Storm won the regular season series, winning two out of the three games, but all matchups have been closely contested. Let us dive into Thursday’s matchup and see where we can find some value.
- Game: Washington Mystics (22-14) at Seattle Storm (22-14)
- Location: Climate Pledge Arena
When talking about the Washington Mystics, the WNBA betting trends this season has been to play the under. The Mystics have held the best defensive rating in the league all season long and that’s not going to change over these next few games.
The same goes for the Storm who have been a top-three defense throughout the regular season. This game has all the makings for a slow, grind-it-out type of game, which is why we would recommend playing the under 158.5. Even better if you were able to grab the under 159.5 when that line first came out.
During their three meetings in the regular season, the total for each of those games closed at 154.5, 155, and 157 respectively, which are all below what the total is for this first-round matchup. The over hit in two of the three meetings, but only one game’s total surpassed Thursday’s line of 158.5, and only by half a point with that game ending with a total of 159.
In terms of the Mystic vs Storm Series Odds of -4.5 for this game, we would recommend taking the points with the Mystics. They’ve rested their player star Elena Delle Donne throughout the season while she has recovered from an extensive back injury, so she should be plenty rested and good to go in this matchup.
That’s not to say that Seattle’s Sue Bird or Breanna Stewart won’t still be a problem for the Mystics, especially with this being Bird’s final season. We expect Seattle to come into the postseason with a little added motivation knowing that two losses in this first round mean that Bird’s career is over. That being said, this game is going to be a close one down the stretch, based on how the previous matchups have gone, and when that’s the case, it’s always nice to have the points on your side.
The Mystics also lead the league in the opponent’s points in the paint and second-chance points. So if that remains true in this matchup and they’re able to keep Stewart off the boards and out of the paint, Washington should have a shot to win this one outright.
With the WNBA playoff odds on the Moneyline at Mystics +145, it might be worth a little sprinkle on the Moneyline. Either way, we expect each game in this series to be closely contested and expect to see some of the best defense we’ve seen all year. Take the under 158.5 and the Washington Mystics +4.5.Follow us on Twitter