2024 Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview

Tourney Field Is Very Strong In MWC

Most years, the Mountain West Conference Tournament would be an extremely dogged fight for teams to either nab the all-important automatic bid or be one of the fortunate MWC teams to push itself from the bubble into the Big Dance field.

This season, the conference is so strong that there is talk that the league could get as many as six teams into the tournament field. That makes the 2024 MWC odds so tight for this week’s conference tournament in Las Vegas.

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San Diego State — despite being the No. 5 seed — is the odds-on favorite to win the tournament for the second-straight year (and third time in four years) after making a run to the National Championship game in 2023.

Utah State and Nevada are currently in the AP Top 25 and are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, while Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV and Colorado State are other solid teams who are decent NCAAB basketball predictions to run the table.

It’s a very deep conference where only four games separated the NCAAB regular season champion Utah State from the sixth- and seventh-best teams. So, this is truly anyone’s tournament which provides for a lot of interesting betting opportunities. Let’s break it down.

Aztecs logo San Diego State (+240)

The Aztecs struggled down the stretch, dropping their final two regular season games to UNLV and Boise State which sunk them down the NCAAB conference standings.

But, they were toward the top of the MWC for most of the season and boast the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year in Jaedon LeDee who averages over 20 points and eight rebounds per game.

As LeDee goes, San Diego State goes. Reese Dixon-Waters, Lamont Butler and Micah Parrish all can help with the scoring load but for the Aztecs to live up to their 2024 MWC odds, LeDee needs to dominate especially because SDSU draws UNLV on Thursday afternoon.

The Rebels just beat SDSU and actually had a better conference records than the Aztecs. That won’t be an easy game which underscores how SDSU at only +240 isn’t great value considering how hard their road to the title will be (and how they are riding a losing streak).

On the other hand, SDSU is No. 20 in KenPom and has the eighth-best adjusted defense rating. The peripheral numbers beyond the box score indicate that the Aztecs are much better than their records suggest. Use that information as you will.

Aggies logo Utah State (+450)

Utah State was probably the consistently best team in the MWC all year so nabbing them at +450 is a good idea.

The Aggies haven’t lost in almost a month and while they did much of their damage this season at home like always (14-1 at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum), they are still a very balanced NCAAB team that shoots nearly 50% from the field — sixth-highest field goal percentage in the country.

Their NCAAB scores are boosted by the aptly named Great Osobor, who has been a huge pickup after transferring from Montana State.

Osobor does a little bit of everything as a versatile forward but he, like the rest of the Aggies, isn’t much of a three-point shooter. That’s a concern in the conference tournament and beyond where scoring can be tough to come by as defensive intensity ratchets up.

Maryland transfer Ian Martinez and Darius Brown (who also came over from Montana State after last season) provide a little perimeter game yet they too mostly do their damage inside.

The Aggies are fortunate to open up against the winner of Wyoming-Fresno State before playing the winner of UNLV-San Diego State if they are able to make it to the quarterfinals.

Wolf Pack logo Nevada (+500)

Outside of a three-game skid in mid-to-late January, the Wolf Pack have been really good for the last month and a half or so with their only two losses since January 20th coming against New Mexico.

Unfortunately for Steve Alford’s team, they’re on the Lobos’ side of the March Madness bracket so if Nevada can beat the winner of Colorado State-San Jose State, they’ll likely play either New Mexico or Boise State in the quarterfinals.

The 2024 MWC odds like Nevada’s chances because they’ve done well against the MWC’s top teams — undefeated against Utah State, San Diego State, UNLV and Colorado State — and because the Wolf Pack have one of the conference’s best shooters in Jarod Lucas and one of the best scorers in Kenan Blackshear.

They’re also No. 35 in the current KenPom rankings, which shows that Nevada is a good team even when compared to power-conference schools. Don’t sleep on them.

Broncos logo Boise State (+600)

The Broncos are another top-40 KenPom team in the MWC and they have a nice and balanced scoring attack with four double-digit scorers in Tyson Degenhart, Chibuzo Agbo, O’mar Stanley and Max Rice.

Still, though, they aren’t a great offensive team and mostly hang their hat on defense, where Boise State is No. 28 in KenPom’s adjusted defense metric.

At +600, they’re one of the best college basketball bets tomorrow when the tournament tips off because they get to avoid Utah State and San Diego State until the MWC finals. Two of Boise State’s five conference losses were to Utah State as the Aggies are a tough matchup for them.

It’ll be a bit easier to take on New Mexico or Air Force and then likely Nevada. The Broncos are also playing good basketball right now, having won six of their last seven regular season games.

Everyone Else:

  • Lobos logo New Mexico (+700)
  • Rebels logo UNLV (+800)
  • Rams logo Colorado State (+800)
  • Cowboys logo Wyoming (+25000)
  • Bulldogs logo Fresno State (+25000)
  • Spartans logo San Jose State (+25000)
  • Falcons logo Air Force (+25000)

It feels like short shrift to include New Mexico, UNLV and Colorado State here because they had above-.500 conference records and definitely could knock off a higher-seed or two this week in Las Vegas.

But, there are just so many good teams in the MWC that it’s difficult to see the Lobos or Rams winning four games in four days as they didn’t get byes.

UNLV at +800 is interesting because they are playing on their home court, the Thomas & Mack Center, and because they do have a bye. Their opening college basketball matchup against San Diego State is tough and a potential semifinal against Utah State wouldn’t be any easier, though.

It’s hard to see Wyoming, Fresno State, San Jose State or Air Force making much noise after they formed the clear bottom-tier of the MWC all year.

For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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