Final Four Player Props: Look for UConn’s Hawkins to Stay Hot From 3
In San Diego State-Florida Atlantic, There's Value on Unders
The NCAA men’s basketball Final Four tips off Saturday in Houston, with No. 5 seed San Diego State against No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic tipping off at 6:09 p.m., followed by No. 4 seed UConn vs. No. 5 Miami at approximately 8:49 p.m. With that in mind, let’s dip into our bag of college basketball predictions and take a look at our favorite Final Four player props.
San Diego State vs Florida Atlantic
Darrion Trammell Under 1.5 total assists (+160)
The Seattle transfer has been a big-time playmaker for the Aztecs. He tied a season-high with 21 points in a Sweet 16 upset of top-ranked Alabama and followed that up by sinking the game-winning free throw against Creighton to send the school to its first Final Four.
Despite that, he’s had just one or fewer assists in five of the last six games and is averaging just 3.1 helpers on the season. At plus odds, the value here is too good to ignore.
Johnell Davis Over 5.5 Total Rebounds (-115)
The 6-4 sophomore has been aggressive on the boards of late. He pulled down a season-high 12 rebounds in the round of 32 — granted it was Fairleigh Dickinson, the shortest team in the tournament — and had six more in the Sweet 16 and eight in the Elite Eight.
In what figures to be a defensive battle, Davis should be in position to hit this Final Four player props.
Vladislav Goldin Under 8.5 Total Points (-115)
The 7-foot-1 sophomore scored 14 points (3.7 above his season average) in the Elite Eight win over Kansas State. His 11 field goal attempts were the second-most this season, only behind his 13 attempts in a Nov. 11 loss to Ole Miss.
Goldin should face much more resistance in the paint against the Aztecs, who are fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
UConn vs Miami
Jordan Hawkins Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (-150)
After a miserable showing in the Big East semifinals, Hawkins has looked more like himself in the NCAA Tournament. He finished with 20 points and six rebounds against Gonzaga, hitting six 3-pointers, and was crowned Most Outstanding Player of the West Regional.
Hawkins has surpassed this total in all four tournament games, and he’s shooting a healthy 38.5% from 3-point range on the season. He should get plenty of opportunities against Miami, which is 154th in the country in 3-point defense (33.4%).
Norchad Omier Over 9.5 Total Rebounds (-140)
The 6-7 sophomore has dominated the glass, pulling down double-digit rebounds in three of his four NCAA Tournament games since injuring his ankle in the ACC semifinals.
On the season, Omier is averaging 10.1 boards per game and ranks top 10 in the country with 16 double-doubles. With the 6-9 Adama Sanogo and 7-2 Donovan Clingan, UConn is imposing in the paint, and Omier has had some trouble with fouls of late. But if Omier can stay on the floor, he shouldn’t have any issue surpassing this Final Four player props.
Andre Jackson Over 5.5 Total Assists (-115)
The 6-6 junior is UConn’s Swiss Army knife, a max-energy player who does a lot of things well. He has thrived in a “point-forward” role, distributing the ball to UConn’s plethora of high-level scorers. Jackson had seven assists in each of the first three NCAA Tournament games and a season-high 10 in the West Regional final.
Because the pace of this game should be brisk, Jackson should see plenty of opportunities to score — or help his teammates do so. He is excellent in transition.
Tristen Newton Under 10.5 Total Points (-125)
Tristen Newton has been more a facilitator than scorer. He’s scored in the single digits in five of the last seven games and is averaging just 9.9 points on the season. We’re going to count on that trend continuing.
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