Furman vs San Diego State March Madness Betting Preview

Paladins Look to Play Cinderella One More Time

The Furman Paladins were the talk of the NCAA Tournament. At least until Princeton knocked off Arizona. But that in no way diminishes what No. 13 seed Furman did with its upset victory over Virginia. But things aren’t going to get any easier on Saturday, as the Paladins play San Diego State.

The Furman vs San Diego State odds have the Aztecs favored by 5.5 and the total is holding steady at 138. San Diego State is -230 on the moneyline. The game will be played at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on Saturday. The game will be played at 12:10 p.m. ET and be aired by CBS. (Odds change frequently, be sure to check for the most up to date changes.)

FUR Furman: Paladins Stifle Virginia’s 3-Point Shooting

Furman’s upset over Virginia was a good reminder for those who enjoy betting on March Madness – they play the games for a reason. On paper, Virginia was definitely the better team. But the game is played on the court by 20-year-old young men. Anything can happen and during March Madness, it sometimes does.

A quick look at the stats from Furman’s victory will have one thing jump out at you – the Cavaliers were just 2 for 12 from 3-point range. Virginia scored 29.5% of its points from 3-point range and shot 35% for the season. But Furman completely shut down Virginia’s outside shooting. It’s a good thing, too. Furman didn’t shoot the ball very well itself.

But Furman didn’t make many turnovers and hit 10 3-pointers, which turned out to be the difference in the 68-67 win over the Cavaliers. Furman will have to post better numbers against San Diego State and the Paladins don’t have much time to celebrate.

Defensively, Alabama forced just six turnovers and allowed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to grab 17 offensive rebounds. Alabama was outworked, although part of it likely had to do with the score. Alabama also played 10 players for 10 minutes or more and nobody played more than 21 minutes. The Alabama Crimson Tide was more interested in getting players some rest than running up the score.

SDSU San Diego State: Aztecs Fend of Scrappy Charleston

San Diego State had to work for its win over Charleston. But most Aztec bettors should be happy, as the college basketball point spreads moved from San Diego State -6.5 to Aztecs -5.5 and they won by six. The margin of victory could have been bigger. But San Diego State didn’t shoot well from 3-point range or the foul line. The Aztecs also made 14 turnovers.

But the San Diego State defense was up to the challenge, holding Charleston to 18 of 56 from the field. The Aztecs were equally tough against the 2-pointer and the 3-pointer. Playing solid defense like that makes up for a lack of offense. But San Diego State needs to come out stronger. The Aztecs trailed 24-17 with about six minutes remaining in the first half.

Handicapping the Game

Furman is ranked No. 33 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Paladins can score from the inside, making 58.7% of their 2-point shots. That’s No. 5 in the nation. That also happens to be San Diego’s weak link defensively. You don’t want to shoot 3-pointers against the Aztecs. But San Diego State is pretty average defending the 2-pointer. Furman is solid at keeping the 3-pointers down.

The Aztecs aren’t bad offensively, but they’re not a great shooting team. San Diego State ranked No. 74 in adjusted offensive efficiency. But part of that has to do with lack of turnovers and the ability to grab some offensive rebounds. If it came down to straight shooting, the Aztecs wouldn’t have the same numbers.

But you’ll be hard-pressed to outdo the San Diego State defense. The Aztecs rank No. 9 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs allow just 28.9% from 3-point range, so teams have to attack them inside. That plays into Furman’s hands a bit.

But the Paladin defense struggles even more than the Aztecs on 2-point shots. San Diego State should have success inside offensively. But the Aztecs are better stopping people than they are scoring.

The Furman vs San Diego State point spread is pretty much spot on. But Furman’s inside game could put up some points against the Aztecs. The total is a bit on the low side, so the play for Furman vs San Diego State is the over 138. (Odds change frequently, be sure to check for the most up to date changes.)

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