NCAA Finals Projected Odds: UConn Looms Big Favorite in Title Game

Miami vs FAU Would Be Closest Game

If you don’t want to wait until Saturday night for odds on the NCAA Championship game, you can already look forward to Monday. By using Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin power ratings, along with the futures prices, you can create your own NCAA Finals projected odds. It’s no surprise the Huskies will be big favorites in the championship game. That’s what you would expect from a team -130 to win it all.

NCAA Championship Game Projected Odds

UConn -6 over San Diego State 136

The Pomeroy ratings have the Huskies 8.1 points better than the Aztecs. The Sagarin ratings have Connecticut 5.5 points better than San Diego, while a quick strength of schedule method predicts UConn by 6 points. If you averaged the three, you’d have UConn -6.5. But the Aztecs are viewed as a better team than Miami, which is only 5.5-point underdogs. Therefore it’s unlikely the spread in the title game will be a full point higher than the semifinal game.

UConn is -130 to win the title and -245 to defeat Miami. That puts the Huskies at roughly a -360 favorite to win the title game. But since San Diego State is a two-point favorite over FAU, you have to factor that into the equation. The Huskies will be about -320 against San Diego State, which would be closer to a 7-point favorite. San Diego State is more of a public team with bettors, so the line is likely to be a shade lower than what it should be.

UConn -8 over Florida Atlantic 146

The NCAA Finals projected odds have the Huskies will be even bigger favorites over the Owls, even though some sentimental bets will come on the underdog. Pomeroy has the Huskies 9.5 points better than FAU, while Sagarin has the margin at 7.75 points. The strength of schedule method really likes UConn, predicting the Huskies 79-67. The betting public will keep this number a little bit lower than what it should be. Based on the numbers alone, the number should be 8.5 or 9. But that’s a lot of points to give the team that led the NCAAB standings with a 35-3 record entering the semifinals.

San Diego State -2 over Miami 145

The NCAA Finals projected odds have the Aztecs as 2-point favorites over Miami. The total projection is a bit high. But the ‘Canes are averaging close to 80 points. Ken Pomeroy has the Aztecs 2.5-points better than Miami. But Sagarin has San Diego State just .5 points better. The strength of schedule method has the Aztecs 5 points better. If Miami defeats UConn, they’ll get a bit too much respect and this line is likely to be a shade lower than it should be. A true number would probably be Aztecs -3.

Miami gets the best of San Diego State in the offensive college basketball team stats but the Aztecs get the edge in defensive numbers. Miami’s wins over Houston and Texas were impressive and should help keep the line down.

Miami -1 over FAU 154

This could be the most exciting finals matchup, although it’s very unlikely this ends up being the title game. Pomeroy has FAU one point better than Miami. Sagarin has Miami two points better than Florida Atlantic. The strength of schedule method took the easy way out and called it 77-77.

There’s no doubt Miami played tougher teams during the season but the Owls get a slight edge in numbers. These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. If one of the two were to win in impressive fashion on Saturday that could have a bit of an impact on the point spread. But this game should be pretty close to even and would certainly be an entertaining game to watch.

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