TCU Horned Frogs vs Arizona State Sun Devils March Madness Betting Preview

11 Seeds Are 11-9 Against 6 Seeds Over the Last Five Years 

We start our TCU Horned Frogs (21-12) vs Arizona State Sun Devils (23-12) preview with a glance at what is one of the more intriguing March Madness bets on our card. We think there is some real value in this College Basketball spreads. The Sun Devils are 16-18-1 ATS this season, the Frogs finished 16-16-1 ATS.

Arizona State vs TCU

Date & Time:
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Region: West

ASU ASU Makes Early Statement Against Pack

After the Sun Devils burned the Wolfpack for 53 first-half points to lead by 27 at the half, there was no coming back for Nevada as ASU cruised to a 98-73 play-in game win. DJ Horne finished with 20 points leading the Devils to a record point total for a first-four game.

To give you an idea of how good Bobby Hurley’s team was in the first half the Sun Devils shot 67.7% from the field and forced 10 turnovers against a disinterested Nevada squad. ASU put together a 22-2 run that put the game away early. That was the sixth straight game State has rotated cover wins and losses.

How the Sun Devils Got Here

Prior to the win against Nevada, Arizona State’s two late wins over Arizona and USC in addition to earlier wins against Michigan, Creighton, and VCU likely pushed them into this year’s tournament. Since February 1st, the Sun Devils are 8-5 straight-up, but to bettors, they’ve been a difficult play-on team after producing a less-than-stellar 6-7 record ATS in that span.

Overall, ASU was just 14-18 ATS this season and 5-12 as a favorite. Over the last four seasons combined, the Sun Devils are 48-58 (45.28%) against the number and 6-8-1 ATS on neutral courts. Since 2017-18, the Sun Devils are 4-5 ATS in tournament games.

How Far Can Arizona State Go?

One down for ASU with a winnable game against TCU on deck. If ASU can continue to shoot 64%, they can go as far as their defense will carry them, but we know that number isn’t a reflection of reality. One aspect of the game that can’t be measured by analytics is the good old chip on the shoulder, something the Sun Devils clearly had after being regulated to the first four.

Postgame comments were about how the team felt disrespected. The question is how long will that carry them? We’ll reveal our Arizona State vs TCU selections later but it’s hard to think that a team that is sussed to shooting under 42% for the season will find enough magic again to stay with one of the bet teams in the Big 12.

TCU Frogs Have Dropped 7 of Last 11 Games After a 13-1 start

This will be the 10th appearance in the ‘Big Dance’ for a program that started in 1908. Not exactly a track record of success, but Jamie Dixon has his team in back-to-back tournaments ad third since 2018. Of those previous nine visits, the Frogs have advanced to the round of 32 six times and sweet 16 four times.

Only once, in 1968, have they made it past the third round. Last year handled #8 Seton Hall, 69-42, before losing to top seed Arizona in overtime, 85-80.

How The Horned Frogs Got Here

If finishing your season strong is the key to going far in the postseason, then TCU will have trouble with the Sun Devils. TCU lost in the second round of the Big 12 tournament to Texas, 66-60 to finish the season on a less than desirable 4-7 run, but 19 games against Quad one teams was enough to impress the committee despite finishing 8-11 in those games. Their biggest win game was at the end of January when they went into Kansas, who was ranked second at the time and thrashed the Kansas Jayhawks 83-60. TCU was a perfect 5-0 against quad two teams.

How Far Will TCU Go?

We think TCU has a chance to get over the ASU hump, but their next game against Gonzaga will pose a new threat to the Frogs. With the anticipation that the number may be inflated some, we think TCU will keep it close but their journey ends with a date against the Zags.

Handicapping the Game

To conclude our Arizona State vs TCU preview by jumping into the betting numbers for each team. As previously mentioned, were a little worried about the Sun Devils’ inconsistency against the number. To take it further ASU is just 2-7 ATS following a straight-up win and 1-7 ATS following an ATS win.

On the flip side, TCU seems to bounce back well after a SU loss, covering 16 of their last 21 with a push. The Frogs are 9-4 ATS after an ATS loss. TCU is the side here.

That concludes our Arizona State vs TCU preview, we wish you the best with this year’s tournament. (Odds change frequently, be sure to check for the most up to date changes.)

Arizona State vs TCU

Last Updated: 3/16/2022 Teams
Spread TCU -5.5
Moneyline TCU -250, ASU +200
Total 141
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