UNC vs NC State Preview: Tar Heels Small Road Favorites
Wolfpack Host Tar Heels in Tobacco Road Rivalry

The University of North Carolina visits in-state rival North Carolina State on Wednesday in the year’s first Tobacco Road rivalry game. The two schools are just 25 miles apart, so the rivalry is intense. This is one game that both teams circle on the college basketball schedule. Even though both teams are 11-3 straight-up, North Carolina has played a more demanding schedule. That’s the primary reason why UNC is favored by 3.5 points on the road. The total on the game is 154.5. The UNC vs NC State preview will examine both teams’ strengths and weaknesses.
Tar Heels vs Wolfpack 
Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, N.C.
Day/Time: Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Tar Heels Taking to Road Well
After playing their first 12 games of the season at home or on neutral courts, there was some question about how UNC would play on the road. So far, it hasn’t been a problem. The Tar Heels defeated a decent Pittsburgh team 70-57 as 3.5-point favorites in their first true road game. They followed that up with a 65-55 win at Clemson as 3-point underdogs. The key to the Tar Heels’ success so far has been their offense, which is averaging 83.6 points a game against teams, allowing an average of 70.3 points per game.
North Carolina isn’t a great shooting team. But it’s effective. The Tar Heels don’t make many turnovers and are decent at grabbing offensive rebounds. Teams can afford to shoot a little bit worse when they do the other things correctly.
The Tar Heels are tough on defense, holding teams who score 77.5 points to 70.8 points per game. UNC holds the opposition to 40.6% shooting and just 30.4% on 3-pointers. The Tar Heels don’t force many turnovers but do a pretty good job of preventing offensive rebounds.
North Carolina is 8-6 against the point spread and 8-5-1 in totals. Still, the Tar Heels are viewed as an outsider when it comes to winning the NCAA championship. Their current odds to win March Madness are at +2800.
Wolfpack Unbeaten at Home
The good news for North Carolina State entering this game is they’re undefeated at home. The bad news is they really haven’t played anybody at home. Saturday’s win over Virginia is the only team they’ve played at home that’s ranked in Ken Pomeroy‘s top 200. NC State should be winning those games. The biggest knock against the Wolfpack so far is their strength of schedule, which ranks No. 326 in the country.
North Carolina State is averaging 77.7 points per game against teams that allow 70.8 points. The Wolfpack are one of the best teams in the country at preventing turnovers, so they get their share of points despite shooting just slightly better than average. NC State struggles a little bit at the foul line, shooting 69.7%, which could hurt them at some point during the season. The UNC vs NC State preview notes the Wolfpack doesn’t get to the free throw line much, so their poor foul shooting hasn’t hurt yet.
NC State holds teams averaging 73.1 points to 68.1 points per game. The Wolfpack does a good job of forcing turnovers and playing decent defense for the most part. But you have to factor in the level of competition they’ve played. It will be tougher against the Tar Heels than some other teams they’ve played.
What to Expect
North Carolina is going to try to force the tempo of the game. The Tar Heels average just 15.6 seconds per possession, which is No. 30 in the country. UNC is hoping for a quick game, which allows them the opportunity to use their athleticism advantage over almost any team in the country.
The Wolfpack doesn’t slow things down and averages 16.4 seconds per possession. But playing a fast-paced game here will work to UNC’s advantage, so the Wolfpack may want to be a little more deliberate on offense and try to get off better quality shots.
Who to Bet On?
The UNC vs NC State preview notes both teams are 3-0 in conference play so that the winner will be at the top of the ACC’s NCAAB standings. The Tar Heels are the better team offensively and defensively, but it’s never easy to win at NC State. The Wolfpack defeated North Carolina 77-69 at home last year as 2-point favorites.
The total is a bit on the high side, but if North Carolina State decides to run with the Tar Heels, there could be enough scoring to send the game over the number. But you have to think NC State is smart enough to slow things down a bit. From a value standpoint, the way to bet this one is under 154.5.
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