2024 College Football Preview: AP Poll Rankings vs. The Odds
Georgia Is Leader In Clubhouse For Title
2024 College Football AP Poll vs Betting Odds: Surprises and Sleepers
Yes, it’s almost that time again. The 2024 college football season is nearly here and a surefire sign of that is the release of the first 2024 AP poll rankings, which were made public on Monday.
- Georgia, the 2021 and 2022 champion, tops both the rankings and betting odds (+300). Ohio State is second in both (No. 2, +325).
These two teams are loaded and aim to bounce back from disappointing 2023 seasons, targeting the new 12-team College Football Playoff.
- The rankings and odds match for the top six teams: No. 3 Oregon (+700), No. 4 Texas (+800), No. 5 Alabama (+1500), and No. 6 Ole Miss (+1500).
After that top group, things understandably open up because, ultimately, what the first set of rankings show has close to no real-life relevance once the 2024 college football schedule begins. Upsets are constantly happening, players are always getting hurt and teams that people may be sleeping on inevitably break out.
It’s worth reviewing the rest of the top 25 to spot undervalued or overvalued teams by AP voters.
You might find good value on teams now, as casual fans focus more on rankings than actual ability. The top teams are well-known, but lower-ranked ones don’t receive the same scrutiny.
The Public Loves LSU
The team that the 2024 AP poll rankings are the lowest on compared to what the betting odds state is LSU.
- The Tigers are just No. 13 in the poll but are +1800 to win it all, the seventh-best title odds. Brian Kelly’s team is coming off a 10-3 campaign and has a bunch of relatively unproven guys on offense so it is certainly interesting why there is so much more public belief in them than poll support.
This is particularly true because the SEC is as loaded as ever and while Alabama is expected to take a step back, there are still a ton of great teams in that conference. The LSU hype train may be an example of bettors looking at a premier name that looks to be a bit undervalued and overshooting things a little.
Utah Is A Sleeper Team
On the other hand, a team whose college football championship odds look a bit lower than they should be based on their place in the AP poll is Utah which is +4000 to win it all yet just No. 12 in the rankings.
Utah went 8-5 in 2023 but didn’t have star quarterback Cameron Rising all season due to injury.
Rising is back, two years after throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2022. His health should significantly improve the Utes, who had mediocre quarterback play from Bryson Barnes last year. Transitioning from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 will be challenging. However, the Big 12’s lax defenses and high-scoring games favor Utah’s offensive structure and roster.
- At +4000, Utah is not a bad title pick.
Tennessee Could Surprise People
- The Tennessee Volunteers are relatively low in the 2024 AP poll rankings at No. 15 but they’re “only” +3000 to win it all.
There’s a significant gap between rankings and odds for Tennessee. They were 9-4 last season and lost starting quarterback Joe Milton to the NFL.
Josh Heupel’s team will break in a new signal-caller, likely former top recruit Nico Iamaleava. They must replace top rusher Jaylen Wright and second-leading receiver Ramel Keyton.
It’s tougher to see why the public is higher on Tennessee than the AP voters are.
Oklahoma State Is Being Faded; Kansas State And Miami Are Gassed Up
In the NCAAF Odds, the final three teams in the AP poll and title odds are Oklahoma State (No. 17; +20000), Kansas State (No. 18; +8000), and Miami (No. 19; +5000).
Oklahoma State is undervalued in the poll. The Cowboys stay in a weakened Big 12 and have Ollie Gordon II, the Doak Walker Award winner. They also return starting quarterback Alan Bowman, who had an inconsistent 2023 but possesses a big arm.
In contrast, Kansas State and Miami have lower poll rankings but better title odds. The Wildcats were 9-4 in 2023 with Will Howard, who has now transferred to Ohio State. True sophomore Avery Johnson will take over, which carries some risk.
Miami finished 7-6 last season. They added Washington State quarterback Cam Ward, Houston receiver Samuel Brown, and Oregon State running back Damien Martinez. These additions, plus a strong returning wideout group, bring optimism for the Hurricanes in a weaker ACC.
For NCAAF picks today, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
