2024 NCAAF Cheat Sheet: Michigan State Stats & Odds

The Michigan State Spartans fired Mel Tucker for inappropriate conduct in late September.

The 52-year-old signed a 10-year contract worth $95 million after starting 8-0 with the Spartans in 2021. In his first season on the job, the Spartans knocked off the Michigan Wolverines, and he was seen as the savior of Michigan State football.

But that wasn’t the case. Michigan State struggled in 2022 and missed a bowl game. Then, the Spartans suspended and fired Tucker from the job last season.

The Spartans finished 4-8 overall and 2-7 in conference that year. So, they signed Jonathan Smith as the program’s next head coach.

Smith got his first opportunity to be a head coach at Oregon State. He coached from 2018-2023 and had an overall record of 34-35. But he was in a rebuilding stage at Oregon State earlier in his career. By 2021, he had Oregon State above .500 every year.

Smith’s Oregon State Beavers went 7-6 in 2021, 10-3 in 2022, and 8-4 in 2023. He had Oregon State ranked in the top 25 the last two seasons.

We’ll see if he can work magic with Michigan State this year.

Let’s check out the projected 2024 Michigan State stats and odds below.

Michigan State At A Glance

Michigan State Needs Patience

Jonathan Smith took over a Spartans team that finished 2-8 under defensive backs coach Harlon Barnett.

The Spartans finished 12 in the Big Ten in recruiting, per On3, and have a top 30 strength of schedule, per PFF.

This year’s roster has a lot of new players, including two new transfers at quarterback.

Aidan Chiles will likely be the starting quarterback. He transferred from Oregon State to play for Smith at Michigan State.

As a freshman, he completed 68.6% of passes and added four touchdowns with no interceptions in nine games. However, he wasn’t the starter and ultimately got most of his action when Oregon State had big leads or played poor opponents.

Still, he was one of the top quarterback transfers in the nation and should be a good fit for Michigan State’s offense. After all, he was a four-star recruit coming out of high school in 2023.

That said, facing Big Ten defenses will be a whole other challenge.

Championship Odds: Make a Bowl Game First!

Michigan State doesn’t have a championship-caliber team. This squad is more mysterious, with so many transfers and a quarterback who has never taken a lead role in college.

While the offense should be better under Chiles, the defense will likely still be a work in progress. The defense lost three transfers and brought in seven new players. If there’s no immediate impact from all those new defense players, it’ll be another disaster season for the defense in East Lansing.

We’ll likely see higher NCAA Football scores for Michigan State this season.

Conference Odds: There’s Not Even Top Ten In The Big Ten!

The reality is that Jonathan Smith wasn’t even .500 at Oregon State. It took him nearly four seasons to build a winning team there.

It’s not as easy to immediately bring talent that can compete at the Big Ten level. If you look at the Michigan State conference odds, they’re below 14 other teams. As stated above, the Spartans would be lucky even to earn a bowl game with this roster’s projected 2024 Michigan State stats.

Regular Season Wins: Michigan State Has Brutal Schedule

The Michigan State Spartans would need just five wins to earn their win total Over.

However, it’s hard to find where those wins would come from.

The Spartans have a home game against Florida Atlanta to begin the season. They’ll be favored and expected to win that one. However, they’ll hit the road against Maryland the following week. That will likely result in a loss.

A win against Prairie View would improve Michigan State’s record to 2-1, but a road game at Boston College might not go as planned.

At 2-2, Michigan State would face Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan in the next five weeks.

Michigan State has the potential to earn a win against Indiana at home. Maybe the Spartans will pull out a win against Purdue. But we’ve got Michigan State losing to Illinois and Rutgers.

With these projected 2024 Michigan State stats, they would add just four wins on the season.

To Make Playoffs: Don’t Even Think About It!

While Michigan State added Aidan Chiles as the starting quarterback, the rest of the offensive transfers brought in likely won’t even be starters.

That means Chiles will have to work with Nate Carter at running back and other wide receivers, who were already part of the losing culture last year.

This is why Michigan State’s college football odds and predictions are low.

Side Bets

There will be some models and other people who like Michigan State to win at least six games. We aren’t fans of Michigan State this season, but again, you can argue that Michigan State will earn six wins and a bowl game in Jonathan Smith’s first season.

The best way to get there would be to defeat Florida Atlanta, Prairie View, Boston College, Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue.

Again, we think Michigan State will lose a couple of these games. But if you don’t, you can look at Michigan State to win 6+ games this season at +120 odds. Michigan State will never be inside the Top 25 NCAA Football rankings, but some analysts out there think the Spartans will surprise.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• 2024 NCAAF Cheat Sheet: Ohio State Buckeyes Stats & Odds
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• 2024 NCAAF Cheat Sheet: Iowa Hawkeyes Stats & Odds
• 2024 NCAAF Cheat Sheet: Michigan Wolverines Stats Odds
• 2024 NCAAF Cheat Sheet: Wake Forest Demon Deacons Stats & Odds

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