2024 NCAAF Cheat Sheet: North Carolina Tar Heels Stats & Odds
Can DC Geoff Collins Help Change The Defensive 2024 North Carolina Stats?
Heading into the 2024-’25 season, the North Carolina Tar Heels are looking to build on their 8-5 record from a year ago. North Carolina went 4-4 in conference play with top prospect Drake Maye. Ultimately, the Tar Heels dominated at home but only added one road win throughout the season. North Carolina also finished the season on a three-game losing streak after an excellent start to the year.
The Tar Heels had to find a way to replace Maye’s production at quarterback. Maye added nearly 8,000 yards passing in two seasons and earned more than 1,000 yards rushing. It stings losing him. But don’t worry, North Carolina landed Max Johnson in the transfer portal to take his place.
The Tar Heels are in a great position with the former LSU and Texas A&M graduate transfer.
Johnson will be paired with Omarion Hampton, who was one of the nation’s best running backs last year. Hampton rushed for more than 1,500 yards and added 15 touchdowns. He also averaged 5.9 yards a carry and did all this as a sophomore.
Therefore, the offense should have no problems scoring. However, the offense wasn’t the issue last season under Drake Maye and Co. It was the defense. At times, the defense was Swiss cheese. The Tar Heels must fix those holes to compete for a College Football Playoff spot.
We’ll look at the projected 2024 North Carolina stats and odds for the season ahead.
North Carolina At A Glance
| Odds to Win | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Championship | +20000 | +50000 |
| Conference | +4500 | +3000 |
| Regular Season Win Total | 7.5 (o-115, u-105) | 7.5 (o-115, u-105) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +4000 | Yes +4000 |
Don’t Doubt Mack Brown!
The North Carolina Tar Heels were always known as a basketball school. However, Mack Brown returned for his second stint at North Carolina in 2019 and transformed the program again.
Brown is 107-73-1 with the Tar Heels and has a national championship from 2005 on his resume with the Texas Longhorns.
Brown’s career record is 282-149-1, and he’s coached in 26 bowl games. He’ll be 73 years old by the time the season kicks off, but that only means he’s got a ton of experience. He’s competed in almost every league, including the ACC, and continues to build winners.
He’s also really good at recruiting viable quarterback options that become x-factors. Before Maye, it was Sam Howell, who had already started games in his NFL career.
That’s why you can never doubt Mack Brown’s teams.
Championship Odds: Defense Matters
The North Carolina offense has always been a powerhouse. They’ve developed offenses year after year without an issue. The Tar Heels have put their last two quarterbacks into the NFL.
It’s the defense that needs to adapt.
North Carolina changed in the offseason, bringing in Geoff Collins as the new defensive coordinator. Collins has more than two dozen years of experience. He’s also recruited some big names and developed them to get into the NFL.
But building a defensive system doesn’t just happen overnight. After all, the Tar Heels only added three supreme transfers for the defense: Joshua Harris, Jakeen Harris, and Tyrane Stewart. The rest of the team is made up of guys who were on the team previously.
That doesn’t convince us to consider a long-shot investment here.
Conference Odds: You Never Know About The Tar Heels
The North Carolina Tar Heels always play good football out of the gate. Eventually, the defense gets tired, and the offense cannot put up 45+ points game after game.
Maybe Collins has a different defensive scheme that works, and maybe Max Johnson becomes a top-ten quarterback in the league. But if those two things don’t happen, the Tar Heels likely won’t win the ACC.
They’ll still be a good idea for many college football picks and parlays throughout the season, though.
Regular Season Wins:
The Tar Heels have a line of 7.5 wins this season.
The year won’t start off easy, but the 2024 North Carolina stats should be good. They’ll have a road game against a Big Ten opponent in Minnesota. Ultimately, Minnesota took a step back last season. But this is surely a game that North Carolina could lose. On paper, North Carolina looks better. On the road, it seems tricky. Either way, we’ll give North Carolina this game.
At 1-0, North Carolina would face Charlotte, NC State, and James Madison. All three of those games should be wins. Ultimately, James Madison lost its coach from last year and likely won’t ever be as good as last year.
At 4-0, North Carolina’s road game against Duke will be challenging. We’ll put them at 4-1 with a home game against Pittsburgh. That should be a win.
With a 5-1 record, North Carolina should get past Georgia Tech and Virginia. That’s already seven wins. UNC likely won’t escape Florida State on the road, but at 7-2, we like North Carolina’s chances to defeat Wake Forest at home.
That would already be eight wins. But let’s say North Carolina loses to Minnesota on the road to start the season. The Tar Heels would have to beat Boston College on the road or North Carolina State at home. Both are surely winnable games. After going through our college football predictions, the Over is juiced to -115 for a reason. That’s the play.
To Make Playoffs: Would 10 Wins Be Enough?
What if North Carolina only lost to Duke and Florida State?
That would be ten wins for the Tar Heels. With the new format, ten wins could get a team into the 12-team playoffs.
That said, a loss to Minnesota in Week 1 would derail it all. Week 1 is super important for the Tar Heels. It’s not one of our college football best bets, but if you like North Carolina to win against Minnesota, you must consider UNC at +4000.
Side Bets
Right now, Max Johnson is +25000 to win the Heisman this year.
It’s doubtful Johnson will win the Heisman. However, at +25000, there’s certainly some value. Look at what North Carolina has done with Sam Howell and Drake Maye. Johnson could be a monster for the 2024 North Carolina stats this season.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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