2024 NCAAF Cheat Sheet: Penn State Nittany Lions Stats & Odds

Could 2024 be a make-or-break year at Penn State for head coach James Franklin? The Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back double-digit win seasons under Franklin yet continue to chase a berth in the College Football Playoffs.

The Nittany Lions seem more likely than ever to make it this season, though things can often change on a dime.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the projected 2024 Penn State stats.

Enormous Expectations Await Penn State

Penn State trailed Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten pecking order again last season, and things are about to become even more difficult with Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA coming aboard.

Quarterback Drew Allar returns, but he must show improvement after his disappearing acts against the Wolverines and Buckeyes.

• The Nittany Lions finished 10-3 (7-2 Big Ten), losing 38-25 to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.

Expectations understandably remain high, with Penn State projected for 10.5 regular-season wins. When the Nittany Lions open the season at West Virginia on Aug. 31, they will likely do so with an AP Top 10 ranking to their name.

Allar’s supporting cast remains formidable, with running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and tight end Tyler Warren also coming back.

On top of that, the Nittany Lions brought aboard Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, whose job is to bolster the country’s 80th-ranked passing attack.

Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen takes over as defensive coordinator, replacing Manny Diaz. He has a few new pieces to work with in cornerbacks Jalen Kimber (Florida) and A.J. Harris (Georgia), both transfers.

If everything goes according to plan, the Nittany Lions will be in the mix for a Big Ten title and an appearance in the CFP. But if not, head coach James Franklin’s seat will only grow hotter. Here is a closer look at the projected 2024 Penn State stats.

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Championship Odds: Allar Holds Keys to Title Hopes

A national championship? It’s certainly possible, but only if Allar plays to his potential. He struggled mightily in losses to Ohio State and Michigan last season, completing only 43.7% of his passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns.

The Nittany Lions combined to score only 27 points in those games, their two offensive outputs on the season.

At +2200, they have the eighth-shortest 2024 college football championship odds on the board. Those odds will only continue to grow if they take care of business against West Virginia and have a strong start to Big Ten play against Illinois (Sept. 28) and UCLA (Oct. 5).

A Big Ten title is the Nittany Lions’ clearest path to the CFP, but they also should lock up an at-large bid with another 10-win season.

Conference Odds: Ohio State, Oregon Slight Favorites

Again, they’ve struggled against the Wolverines and Buckeyes, and realignment has only made the path tougher.

• Their Big Ten title NCAAF odds have climbed from +550 to +500 in recent weeks, though they remain behind Ohio State (+155) and Oregon (+200).

Penn State hosts Ohio State (Nov. 2) and misses both Michigan and Oregon on the schedule. But it does make trips in consecutive games to USC (Oct. 12) and Wisconsin (Oct. 26), which could complicate its pursuit of the conference’s best record.

The Nittany Lions have finished 7-2 in Big Ten play in three of the last four full seasons, with the exception of 2021 (4-5). That may not cut it this season.

Regular Season Wins: Schedule Set Up Nicely

Oddsmakers are bullish on the Nittany Lions, whose projected win total has climbed from 9.5 to 10.5 since the start of the offseason.

Penn State is 21-5 over the past two seasons and 88-39 under Franklin since 2014, though it continues to struggle against superior NCAAF teams. In fact, Franklin is just 3-17 versus the AP Top 10.

Fortunately, the 2024 college football schedule could break in the Nittany Lions’ favor this season. The non-conference slate is underwhelming, with Bowling Green (Sept. 7) and Kent State (Sept. 21) following the opener at West Virginia.

• The Nittany Lions — again, should — be 5-0 heading into its trip to USC, which begins a daunting three-game stretch that could help determine their fate.

Penn State obviously can’t afford to lose more than one of those games and still surpass certain expectations.

To Make Playoffs: Postseason or Bust

It is playoffs or bust for the Nittany Lions, who are looking at a preseason Top 10 ranking. They’ve consistently fallen short under Franklin, but expansion — with the CFP field tripling from four to 12 teams — offers more opportunities as they seek their first playoff appearance.

Another 10-win season should be enough to get the Nittany Lions no worse than an at-large, especially if they knock off someone like Ohio State. But they’d be wise not to test their luck.

Can Allar Raise the Bar?

• Allar may be a +3500 longshot to win the Heisman Trophy, but the junior can flip the script by leading Penn State to a Big Ten title and its first trip to the CFP.

Allar was very productive for most of last season, passing for 2,631 yards, 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions while also rushing for four college football scores.

However, his NCAAF stats tailed off down the stretch, as he recorded a sub-50% completion rate in three of his last four games. The Nittany Lions went 2-2 in those contests.

If he can perform more consistently, he may find himself in the mix for college football’s most coveted award.

For projected 2024 Penn State stats, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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