Big 10 Wins Totals: Ohio State and Michigan Head of Class, Again
Penn St. Biggest Threat to Buckeyes and Wolverines

Once again, Ohio State and Michigan are the favorites for college football supremacy in the Big Ten, with Penn State also in the mix. Who else may challenge those schools?
Let’s break down the projected Big 10 Wins Totals for the 2022-23 season.
Illinois took a big big step forward in Bret Bielema’s second season, winning eight games and making a bowl appearance for the first time since 2019. The Fighting Illini had one of the top defenses in the country last season and should be solid again, despite losing defensive coordinator Ryan Walters to Purdue. They also must replace cornerback Devon Witherspoon, who was picked fifth in the NFL Draft by Seattle, and running back Chase Brown.
Indiana has fallen drastically since its Outback Bowl appearance in 2021, and with a brutal schedule forthcoming, things might get worse before they get better. The Hoosiers open at home against Ohio State on Sept. 2, then visit Michigan on Oct. 14. Oof.
Iowa was woeful offensively last season, ranking 123rd nationally in scoring (17.7 points per game). That said, the Hawkeyes should see better results under former Michigan starter Cade McNamara. McNamara, who has two seasons of eligibility left, transferred after losing his job to J.J. McCarthy, a former five-star recruit.
If all breaks right, the Hawkeyes could challenge Wisconsin for the Big Ten West title. It helps they’ll avoid both Michigan and Ohio State during the regular season.
As goes Taulia Tagovailoa, so go the Terrapins? It sure seems that way. Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, holds the school record for passing yards (7,879), passing touchdowns (51), completions (665), completion percentage (67.4) and total yards (8,067).
The Terrapins are coming off consecutive bowl wins for the first time 2002-03.
Michigan will be among the favorites to win the Big Ten and return to the College Football Playoff on the heels of a 13-1 finish. J.J. McCarthy, who passed for 343 yards and two touchdowns in the Fiesta Bowl loss to TCU, is back, as is standout running back Black Corum.
The Spartans were among college football’s biggest disappointments last season, going 5-7. It was a big step backward after the program signed Mel Tucker to a massive 10-year, $95 million extension, making him one of college football’s highest-paid coaches.
A Week 3 date with Washington could set the course for Michigan State’s season.
Athan Kaliakmanis showed promise as a freshman under center, going 3-2 as a starter. He completed 60-of-111 attempts for 946 yards and three touchdowns. Minnesota will likely be in good hands should Kaliakmanis continue to make strides.
After a failed stint as an NFL head coach with the Carolina Panthers, Matt Rhule is back in college. Rhule has a reputation as a program-builder. In his fourth season at Temple, he led the program to its first conference championship since 1967. At Baylor, just two years after going 1-11, Rhule guided the Bears to 11 wins and an appearance in the BCS Sugar Bowl.
Can he resurrect Nebraska and lead the program back to glory? It’s a tall order.
Here’s the good news, Northwestern: it can’t get much worse. The Wildcats were abysmal last season, finishing 1-11 with a negative-175 point differential. That included a loss to FCS school Southern Illinois.
Fortunately, Northwestern won’t have to deal with either Michigan or Ohio State, and it’ll at least get Penn State at home. It does, however, have the lowest projected Big 10 Wins Totals outside of Indiana.
The Buckeyes remain a national championship contender, even without quarterback C.J. Stroud. Sophomore receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is a projected top-5 NFL pick and potential Heisman trophy contender.
A Sept. 23 trip to Notre Dame should tell a lot about how far they are likely to go.
Outside of Ohio State and Michigan, nobody has higher projected Big 10 Wins Totals. Whether the Nittany Lions can get to double-digit wins will likely depend on how they fare against the conference’s lead dogs. Should they beat Ohio State, Michigan, or both, anything is possible, including a College Football Playoff appearance.
Purdue looked inside the Big Ten to find its replacement for Jeff Brohm, poaching Walters from Illinois. At 37, Walters is among the youngest head coaches at the FBS level. He oversaw one of the nation’s top defenses in 2022, as the Fighting Illini ranked No. 1 in the country in scoring defense (12.3 points per game allowed) and No. 2 in yards per play allowed (4.26).
He’ll need time to make a similar impact at Purdue.
Greg Schiano’s second act at Rutgers is turning into a bad sequel. The Scarlet Knights are just 12-22 over the last three seasons, with a blowout loss to Wake Forest in the 2021 Gator Bowl. Unfortunately, this season isn’t shaping up to be much better. Rutgers’ NCAA football schedule is daunting, with road games at Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State.
Wisconsin made one of the splashiest head-coaching hires of the offseason, luring Luke Fickell away from Cincinnati. The Badgers should be the favorite in the Big Ten West division, with Iowa also in contention.
Quarterback Tanner Mordecai, a two-year starter at SMU, is in line to guide Wisconsin’s new Air Raid offense.
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