BYU vs TCU Betting Preview: Horned Frogs Seek to End Skid

Texas Christian Falls to 3-3 After Dropping 2nd Straight

The BYU Cougars visit TCU on Saturday in a Big 12 Conference game. It’s a big matchup for TCU, which fell to 3-3 after losing to Iowa State 27-14 a week ago. The Horned Frogs have been favored in every game this season, with all three losses coming as favorites of 6.5 points or greater. BYU moved to 4-1 on the season with its first Big 12 Conference victory, defeating Cincinnati 35-27 last week. The BYU vs TCU betting preview shows Texas Christian is favored by 5.5 points and the total on the game is 52.5.

Cougars logo BYU Cougars vs TCU Horned Frogs Horned Frogs logo

Date & Time:
Streaming: ESPN
Line: TCU -5.5
Total: 52.5

Cougars Running Game Invisible

BYU is averaging 31 points a game, but it’s certainly not due to the running game. The Cougars are averaging 66.6 yards per game and gaining just 2.4 yards per rush. The passing game is good. But it certainly can’t be called great. The Cougars are throwing for 255.8 yards per game. BYU has made the most of its chances this season. The Cougars are scoring a point for every 10.5 yards of offense, which is No. 4 in the NCAAF rankings nationally. Only USC, Florida State, and Kentucky are better.

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The Cougars are allowing 22.4 points per game, so they’re holding teams to 2.9 fewer points than the average. BYU is a little worse than average against the run. Teams are averaging 152.4 yards against the Cougars and gaining 4.4 yards per carry. BYU is slightly above average against the pass. The Cougars are allowing 208.4 yards through the air.

Despite their 4-1 record, the Cougars are just 2-3 against the NCAAF scores and odds. BYU failed to cover its two games as a double-digit favorite. In totals, the Cougars are 4-1 on the season, going over the number in its last four games.

TCU Offense Has Gone Quiet

After scoring at least 34 points in each of its first two games, the Horned Frogs have scored 35 combined points in its last two. TCU is on an 0-5 over/under run after its first game of the year went over the total. The Horned Frogs are just 2-4 against the point spread this season.

The Horned Frogs are scoring 31.3 points per game, but have had a tougher time scoring lately. TCU is averaging 472.5 yards in total offense, although it had 398 in last week’s loss to Iowa State. The Horned Frogs run the ball well and are above average in the passing game. So the team’s struggles to score is a little bit of a mystery.

On defense, TCU is surrendering 22 points per game to teams scoring 24.8 points. So the defense isn’t playing badly. The Horned Frogs are a little better against the pass and the run. Teams are running more than passing against TCU despite allowing just 3.5 yards per rush.

What to Expect

The BYU vs TCU betting preview expects BYU to throw the ball a bit more than normal. The Cougars have struggled with the run and now face a tough run defense. The only game BYU has rushed for more than 100 yards was the season opener against Sam Houston State. The Cougars will run a few times to keep the defense honest. But it’s definitely the weak link to the team right now. BYU has been held to less than 3.0 yards per rush in three of its five games.

The Horned Frogs have moved the ball a bit in the last two games. The team simply isn’t scoring or taking advantage of opportunities. TCU was intercepted three times in Iowa State territory and stopped on the Cyclone 4 on downs. The Horned Frogs have to come away with points in a couple of those possessions. It could have changed the outcome of the game.

TCU has to forget about missed chances the past two weeks and get back to basics. With Kansas State, Texas, and Oklahoma still on the schedule, getting to a bowl game isn’t guaranteed. But a victory here will certainly help TCU’s chances.

Who to Bet On?

The BYU vs TCU betting preview has the NCAA football line on this game pretty much where it should be. The Sagarin college football rankings have TCU winning by 4.98 points, so it’s pretty close to the line. The Horned Frogs haven’t been a great home favorite recently, going 5-8-1 against the spread since the start of the 2021 season.

The Cougars are 2-3 as an away underdog since the start of 2021 and are 1-1 this season. BYU has gone 5-0 in totals in those five games as an away underdog. The Horned Frogs are 7-7 in totals as a home favorite and 3-2 when the total is 55 or lower. Have to believe the over-trend with these two teams is the best value play in this game.

For NCAAF betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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