Cheez-it Bowl Betting Odds: Florida State vs. Oklahoma Preview

Seminoles Enter 10-3-1 ATS in Last 14 Bowl Games

Cheez-it Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) at Florida State Seminoles (9-3)

Date & Time:
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Streaming: ESPN

Once Reliable Sooners are Now a Betting Nightmare

The Cheez-it Bowl, formerly known as the Tangerine or Citrus Bowl, will take place in Orlando, Florida for the 22nd time since moving the game from Miami Gardens in 2001. Florida State is a perfect 3-0 in this game, while Oklahoma hopes to avenge their only appearance in the game in 2014, a 40-6 loss to Clemson. FSU vs. Oklahoma odds shows the Seminoles as an 8 ½ point favorite with the total at 65.5.

The last time the Sooners covered back-to-back games was the weeks of October 9th and 16th. Unfortunately for Brent Venables, that was 2021. For a program that has won 73% of its college football games since its inception in 1895 and seven national titles, it’s difficult to put our money behind a school that is 25-31 ATS since 2018. Florida State knows too well about being in a hole for many years before finally climbing out of it to be a reliable wager.

The Seminoles were 8-3 ATS this season, but prior FSU was a capricious 20-33 ATS since 2017. Perhaps this is the turning point of OU, but bettors have other thoughts after pushing this number up a point and a half after opening -7.

Let’s continue our Cheez-it Bowl betting odds preview by taking a closer look at both participants.

Sooners Already Making Moves for 2023

The less-than-average season the Sooners have endured may be a thing of the past after cleaning up in what amounts to College Football’s version of free agency.

The Sooners locked in an edge rusher, tight end, and Notre Dame transfer Jacob Lacey, a 4-star defensive tackle. Needless to say, when they lace it up against Arkansas State to start next NCAAF season, a poor start will put Venables on the hot seat. With unfinished business left this year, let’s dive into some of the numbers that will give us an idea of where our money should go.

This is still a team that will run it down your throat. Averaging almost 217 yards per game on the ground behind Eric Gray’s 1364 yards, they’ll provide a problem for a decent Seminole run defense that allowed just 148 yards per game.

However, run defense numbers can be deceiving with good teams because most of the time they’ll force their opponent to abandon the run in an effort to catch up. In the Seminoles’ three straight losses in October, they gave up an average of 174 yards per game on the ground.

Those were games where they were not able to impose their will, leaving their opposition one-dimensional. If the Sooners can run the ball effectively and not have to play catch-up for most of the day, they might be able to stay within this number if not get an outright win. Let’s continue our Cheez-it Bowl betting odds preview by swinging over to the ‘Noles.

Florida State Expects Physical Sooners

Although this has been a successful season under Mike Norvell, we know that if FSU is to return to the national championship picture, they must become a physical defense. Gone are the days of rabid defense that looked to prove a point with every hit.

Don’t get us wrong, it’s not bad, but they can be better. They’re not on the level of being feared. With key transfers coming into Norman, FSU will have to replace quite of few that will take their talents away from Florida. Turnovers will be the deciding factor and that spells bad news for Florida State which has created just 8 this season, ranking them 87th in the nation. By comparison, Oklahoma is 7th while averaging over one forced turnover a game.

Let’s continue our Cheez-it Bowl betting odds preview by going over line movement followed by our official selection.

Bettors All-In With ‘Noles; Over

The betting public is all over this one, but it’s not the side that has caused the movement in the number, it’s the total. After opening at 58.5, the public has blasted the over which is now at 65.5. Of all the College Football picks and parlay movement, this has been the most significant.

With 75% of the tickets written coming in on the over. As for the side, books are finding it difficult to find Sooner money with 70% of parlays and 65% of the overall money on the Seminoles. To conclude our Cheez-it Bowl betting odds preview, we suggest that Oklahoma is the right side here.

Since getting held scoreless against Texas in week six, OU has averaged 35 points per game. If that holds true, we find it difficult to see FSU getting to the 44-point mark to cover. Take the Sooners here.

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