Cougars Look to Pull Upset at Oklahoma State

BYU vs Oklahoma St Game Highlights Poor Run Defenses

The BYU Cougars picked-up their fifth win of the season on Oct. 21. A month later, the Cougars are still sitting at five wins. That puts BYU in a must-win situation Saturday against Oklahoma State if it’s going to play in a bowl game. But it’s not going to be easy against 8-3 Oklahoma State, which can clinch a spot in the Big 12 Conference championship game with a win. The Cowboys are No. 20 in the college football playoffs rankings and No. 21 in the AP college football rankings. The BYU vs Oklahoma St game highlights a pair of teams that struggle to stop the run. The NCAAF odds have Oklahoma State favored by 16.5 and the total is 56.5.

Cougars logo BYU Cougars at Oklahoma State Cowboys Cowboys logo

Day/Time: Saturday, November 25, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Streaming: ABC

BYU Struggling in Big 12 Conference

The Cougars knew there were going to be bumps as they worked their way into the Big 12 Conference. But is was probably a little rougher than they imagined, as BYU is 3-0 in non-conference games, but 2-6 in Big 12 games. That will likely be their downfall this season, unless they can pull the stunner against Oklahoma State. On paper, anyway, it doesn’t look good for BYU.

The BYU vs Oklahoma St game highlights two poor run defenses, but the Cougars probably don’t run well enough to take advantage. The Cougars run for 103.7 yards per game and gain 3.6 yards per carry. The passing game isn’t anything spectacular, with BYU throwing for 206.2 yards per game.

On defense, the Cougars haven’t been all that bad. BYU is allowing 28.9 points per game to teams who average 28.3 points. The Cougars are decent against the pass, holding teams to under their college football season averages in completion percentage, passing yards and yards per pass. But that run defense is horrible. BYU allows 5.0 yards per carry to teams averaging 4.4 yards per rush and 178.2 yards per game. The Cougars are 1-4 straight-up and against the spread when allowing at least 180 rushing yards.

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Cowboys With Puzzling Losses

Oklahoma State is 8-3 straight-up and 7-4 against the NCAA odds on the season. They’ve beaten the likes of Oklahoma and Kansas State. But they’ve lost to South Alabama and UCF. And they lost bad. The Jaguars defeated the Cowboys 33-7 and UCF dismantled the Cowboys a few weeks ago by a 45-3 final score. South Alabama is 6-5 this season and UCF needs a victory this weekend to become bowl eligible. It’s not as though Oklahoma State was playing the likes of Texas and Georgia.

Those two losses also have an impact on the Cowboys’ stats. Oklahoma State is scoring 29.3 points per game and allowing 26.7. You’d expect a little bit more of a positive scoring margin with an 8-3 record. The Cowboys average 428.3 total yards, with 167.9 coming on the ground and 260.4 through the air. Oklahoma State is averaging 5.2 yards per carry against teams allowing 4.4 yards per rush.

On defense, Oklahoma State allows 4.7 yards per rush and 8.6 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys are allowing 432.1 total yards per game to teams averaging 415.7 yards, so they allow a few more yards than average. Oklahoma State allows less than 60% completions, but allow more yards per pass than foes average.

What to Expect

The Cougars don’t really do much of anything that well. BYU is likely to come out and do what it typically does and mix up the run and pass and stick with what’s working best. The Cougars don’t run the ball that well and may not be able to take advantage of Oklahoma State’s run defense. But they may be able to hit a few big pass plays.

The Cowboys like to throw the ball. But this is a case where they may look at BYU’s defense and elect to run more than normal. The ground game is solid, but is helped by the threat of the pass. But against BYU, the Cowboys can probably get away without the passing game by sticking to the ground.

Who to Bet On?

There was a slight change in the NCAAF odds on this one, as Oklahoma State moved from 17-point favorites to 16.5. That’s just a half-point, but it does make a difference, since a 17-point margin of victory isn’t that unusual. The total appears to be a bit on the high side. But if Oklahoma State can run for five or six yards a pop it won’t take long to move down the field.

The Cougars are going to come out and play hard in hopes of getting that sixth win. You don’t have to worry about effort on the part of BYU, who lost to Oklahoma 31-24 last week. But if they get behind early, the Cougars are a threat to pack it in.

The BYU vs Oklahoma St game highlights two teams who have something to play for, which you don’t always see at this point of the season. That makes the Cougars +16.5 the most enticing wager in this game.

For college football lines today, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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