Duke vs Florida State Free Picks: Can Duke Be The First To Knock Off Florida State?
The Seminoles Still Undefeated Half Way Into The Season
The Duke Blue Devils will look to be the first team to knock off Florida State this season.
The Florida State Seminoles are 6-0 with intriguing wins against LSU and Clemson. Duke will be just as big of a test.
The Bue Devils are 6-1, with their lone loss to Notre Dame. It’s currently unclear if Riley Leonard will play at quarterback after injuring his ankle in that Notre Dame game.
However, Duke earned a 24-3 win over North Carolina State last time, with Henry Belin IV in at quarterback.
Can Duke pull off the upset in the ACC?
We’ve got our Duke vs Florida State free picks for this exciting ACC matchup.
Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles 
Day/Time: Location: Doak Campbell Stadium
Streaming: ABC
Duke vs Florida State Preview
The Florida State Seminoles are currently -13.5 against the spread. Meanwhile, the total is 48.5, with the Over juiced to -115.
Duke is 8-2 straight up in its last ten games and 8-2 against the spread in their previous ten games. This season, the Blue Devils have won four games against the spread in six games. They’re also coming off a cover against North Carolina State as -4 favorites.
Meanwhile, the total pushed once but has hit the Under in three of six games for Duke.
On the other hand, Florida State hasn’t lost in any of their last ten games dating back to last season. The Seminoles also covered their last game, earning a 41-3 win against Syracuse as a -19 favorite. Like Duke, Florida State is 4-2 against the spread. However, the Over has hit in four of six games this year for the Seminoles.
Duke has never won a meeting against Florida State. The Seminoles most recently earned a 56-35 win against Duke in 2020 as three-point favorites.
Can Duke Rely On Henry Belin IV?
The Duke Blue Devils hope star quarterback Riley Leonard will be available for their game against Florida State this weekend.
His status will likely be questionable until near game time.
Leonard has led the team with 912 yards passing, but he’s also rushed the football 326 times on 47 carries this season. He was just hurt in Duke’s loss to Notre Dame a few weeks ago.
If Leonard can’t go, it’ll be Henry Belin IV at quarterback. He only threw 12 times and completed four passes as quarterback for Duke in its 24-3 win over North Carolina State. Duke got ahead quickly and abandoned the passing game. But Belin IV added two touchdown passes on four completions.
Belin IV also had a 26-yard rush and ran with the ball five times. He’s not Leonard and will need to have a higher completion percentage. But if he can hold onto the ball, Duke will compete.
Quarterback Scare for FSU
Jordan Travis is fine. However, fans held their breath last weekend when Florida State hosted Syracuse.
Travis left the game against Syracuse after an injury to his left non-throwing hand or arm on Saturday. He walked back to the locker room in the second quarter for evaluation.
However, the evaluation was quick. He returned to the field in the third quarter and delivered another touchdown for Florida State.
This wasn’t the first time Travis was injured this season, and certainly not the first time he’s been seen by doctors throughout his career.
Florida State needs Jordan Travis as much as Travis needs Florida State. Travis has thrown for nearly 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also has just one interception this year.
Travis is fine and will be in Florida State’s home game on Saturday against Duke.
Below, we’ll break down this ACC game and provide you with our Duke vs Florida State free picks.
Can Florida State Cover As Heavy Favorite?
The Florida State Seminoles are playing for way more than an ACC Championship. They’re No. 4 in the NCAAF rankings, meaning they’d potentially make the College Football Playoff if the season ended today.
Florida State has added nearly 450 yards of offense per game this season. 177.3 yards are coming on the ground between Jordan Travis and Trey Benson.
Benson has averaged 7.1 yards per carry on 65 carries this season to lead the team.
Travis and Benson are playing behind a quality offensive line. However, Duke’s at least above-average upfront has a very good secondary.
The Blue Devils have held teams to 164.7 yards per game in the air and 133.8 yards on the ground. That’s under 300 yards per game for Duke’s defense.
On the other hand, the Blue Devils will undoubtedly look to run the football. No matter who is playing, between Henry Belin and Riley Leonard, they’ll have designed runs. However, if Leonard gets the start, the passing game will be more electric.
Like Duke, Florida State’s secondary is terrific. They’re also stout upfront, like Duke. But Florida State hasn’t tracked at a high rate. They’re missing a lot of tackles. In the run game, that’s not ideal.
Duke vs Florida State Free Picks Analysis
This Duke-Florida State matchup is one of the best NCAAF games on the slate. The Blue Devils could be shorthanded at quarterback, but no matter what, Duke will look to run the football and make plays with their feet.
Meanwhile, Florida State has missed a lot of tackles and could end up missing a bunch against Duke, who has some shifty backs and speed on the team.
While Florida State has the better offensive line, both defenses have played at a high level this season. Florida State has more veteran leadership on offense right now.
If Leonard is available, he likely won’t be 100 percent and wants to take extra contact. However, the run game should still have success behind Jordan Waters. He has nine touchdowns on the season, averaging 6.6 yards per carry on 65 attempts.
After looking at the college football odds and predictions for this ACC game, we’ll take Duke at +13.5. If you can find a +14 number at -125 or better, grab that better and more critical number.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
