Unbeaten no more, the Penn State Nittany Lions will look to get back on track when they host the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday (noon ET). The No. 10 Nittany Lions opened as 27.5-point favorites and are now up to -32.5 (-110), while the Hoosiers are +32.5 (-110). The projected total is 44.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under), down from 47.5.
Read on as we break down the matchup and dive into the Indiana vs Penn State odds in our college football betting preview.
Date/Time: Noon ET
Where: Beaver Stadium; University Park, Pa.
The Indiana Hoosiers are 3-4 against the spread this season, including 1-4 over their last five games. The total has gone Over in five of the Hoosiers’ last six games. Meanwhile, the Penn State Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games, including 6-1 this season. The total has gone Over in 10 of Penn State’s last 15 games. That’s important to remember when assessing the Indiana vs Penn State odds.
Perfect No More
The Penn State Nittany Lions suffered their first loss in Week 8, losing 20-12 to No. 3 Ohio State. A 5.5-point underdog, Penn State also failed to cover the spread for the first time in seven tries this season. The Nittany Lions’ 85.7% cover rate is tied for the highest in FBS.
Sophomore Drew Allar struggled mightily, completing just 18 of 42 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown. He was also sacked four times.
The Nittany Lions (6-1, 3-1) saw their Big Ten Championship hopes take a major hit, plummeting from +300 to +1200 following their loss to the Buckeyes. They’re also now just +5000 to win the national championship, down from +1200 per NCAAF odds.
Penn State also fell in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, dropping three spots to No. 10. The Nittany Lions are one of three teams ranked from the Big Ten, following No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State.
In spite of the loss, defense remains a strength for Penn State. The Nittany Lions have allowed only 68 points over their first seven games, second fewest in FBS behind Michigan (47). They’re also first in total defense, with only 218.1 yards allowed per game. Ohio State was the first team to score 20 points against them this NCAAF season. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Indiana vs Penn State odds.
The Indiana Hoosiers are coming off a 31-14 loss to Rutgers in Week 8. A 6-point underdog, the Hoosiers were outscored 14-0 in the second half and failed to cover the spread for the fourth straight game. The Hoosiers are now 0-4 in Big Ten play and 2-5 overall.
Offense remains a big problem for Indiana. The Hoosiers have scored just 41 points over their four conference games and are averaging 17.9 points on the season, ranking 122nd in FBS. That’s the second-worst among Power Five teams, ahead of only Arizona State (17.0).
Freshman Brendan Sorsby completed 15 of 31 passes for 126 yards and one touchdown against Rutgers. He also ran for 49 yards and a score. It was Sorsby’s first start since the season-opener against Ohio State, a 23-3 loss.
The Hoosiers were projected for 4.0 wins, matching the second lowest in the Big Ten. Although the Hoosiers aren’t slated to face another ranked team following Penn State, they may have a hard time hitting that total. The Hoosiers have been outscored by an average of 27.2 points in conference play.
Handicapping the Game
This is a massive spread, especially for a conference game. That said, it represents a get-right opportunity for Penn State.
After losing to a legitimate national championship contender, the Nittany Lions now face one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Prior to Saturday, the Nittany Lions had outscored Big Ten opponents by a margin of 102-26. There was also a 63-0 rout of UMass mixed in on the NCAAF schedule.
Another loss would eliminate Penn State from not only Big Ten title competition, but also the national championship. Look for the Nittany Lions to roll, and roll early, against the lowly Hoosiers.
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