Iowa vs Wisconsin Odds: 1st Place on The Line in BigTen West

The top two college football teams in the Big Ten West will square off when the Wisconsin Badgers host the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.

There’s been a lot of action in the betting market on Wisconsin, as the Badgers have jumped from 4.5 to 10-point favorites (-110) since lines opened. The Badgers are also -360 on the moneyline, while the Hawkeyes are +10 (-110) on the NCAAF line and +290 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is just 37.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under), down from 40.5.

Who has the edge? Read on as we dive into the Iowa vs Wisconsin odds in our betting preview.

Hawkeyes Betting Trends

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 3-2-1 against the spread this season and 8-3-1 over their last 12 games. The total has gone Under in eight of the Hawkeyes’ last 11 games. The Wisconsin Badgers, meanwhile, just 3-6 ATS over their last nine games, including 2-3 this college football season.

The total has gone Under in seven of their last 10 games. That’s important to remember when assessing the Iowa vs Wisconsin odds.

Badgers in Driver’s Seat

The Wisconsin Badgers took care of business in Week 6, defeating Rutgers 24-13 to improve to 4-1. The Badgers jumped to a 17-0 halftime lead but missed covering the 12.5-point spread, as Rutgers scored with 4:07 remaining to hit the backdoor cover.

Wisconsin is now 2-0 in conference play under head coach Luke Fickell and is alone atop the Big Ten West. It’s largely where the Badgers expected to be following an offseason that saw several changes within the program, including at quarterback. Fortunately, Fickell brought in an experienced signal-caller in Tanner Mordecai. The SMU transfer has been steady, with a 64.2% completion rate through five games. He’s also rushed for four college football scores.

The Badgers were projected for 8.0 regular season wins. With only one game remaining on the NCAAF football schedule against a currently ranked team — Oct. 28 against No. 3 Ohio State — the Badgers are well on their way to exceeding that total.

They also control their own destiny for the Big Ten Championship game. As such, the Badgers’ odds of winning the conference have moved up a tick from +900 to +750. Notably, there are still currently three schools ahead of them in that market: Michigan (+125), Ohio State (+240) and Penn State (+320).

Much of Wisconsin’s success can be attributed to its defense. The Badgers have allowed fewer than 20 points in four of their five games and rank 26th nationally in scoring defense (18.4 points allowed per game). They’re also tied for fifth in the country with eight interceptions. That includes Ricardo Hallman’s 95-yard pick-6 against Rutgers.

No Offense, No Problem?

The Iowa Hawkeyes edged Purdue 20-14 in Week 6, covering as a 2.5-point favorite per NCAAF scores. The Hawkeyes, who came into the game ranked 130th in FBS in total offense, made enough big plays to improve to 5-1 overall. Kaleb Johnson, who’d missed the previous three games with an ankle injury, returned to rush for 134 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

With Cade McNamara, Iowa’s starting quarterback, out for the season with a torn ACL, the Hawkeyes will likely continue to use Johnson in heavy doses. Sophomore Deacon Hill has been woefully inefficient since replacing McNamara, completing just 17 of 48 (35.4%) attempts over his last two appearances. Against Purdue, Hill was just 6 of 21 for 110 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

The Hawkeyes are truly one dimensional on offense, and that doesn’t expect to change anytime soon. Even with McNamara, who had thrown for 505 yards in five college football games, the Hawkeyes struggled to move the ball downfield through the air.

Despite those issues, Iowa is on track to making a third straight bowl game. The Hawkeyes are also just a half game behind Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. If they are able to knock off the Badgers, they’ll be firmly in the hunt for a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. However, oddsmakers are still a bit skeptical of them, dropping their odds of winning the conference from +1000 to +2500.

Again, it doesn’t help that Iowa’s offense remains dead last in the country. Until the Hawkeyes improve in that department, their ceiling is limited. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Iowa vs Wisconsin odds.

Handicapping this Iowa vs Wisconsin Game

It’s no wonder Fickell was one of the top offseason coaching hires. In his first season in Madison, he has the Badgers back in contention for a Big Ten title. The Badgers have an experienced quarterback, potent rushing attack and an opportunistic defense, not to mention a proven winner at head coach.

Iowa has its share of talent too, but its struggles on offense are simply too great to ignore. Poor quarterback play continues to hold back the Hawkeyes.

While Iowa may keep this within single digits, Wisconsin should do enough to win outright, especially at home.

For NCAAF betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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