Liberty Bowl Betting Preview: Arkansas vs Kansas Analysis

The Liberty Bowl has been a staple of bowl season since 1959. It has been played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium since 1965 after bouncing around the Northeast in its early days. In 1964, the Liberty Bowl played its only indoor game in its history at Atlantic City’s Convention Center. In 1965, the game was moved to Memphis, Tennessee where it has been ever since. Both Kansas and Arkansas are 6-6, but as you’ll read, their paths have been very different.

Arkansas Back in Familiar Bowl

Neither team is going to make you rearrange your schedule to watch, but this may be one of the most entertaining games on the bowl schedule if you go by the list of College Football odds

Kansas is just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 non-conference decisions but owns a respectable 7-4-1 ATS record in 2022.

For the Razorbacks, who opened as a consensus 5 ½ point favorite, you can bet that HC Sam Pittman has been working on a better defensive game plan after allowing 468 yards in total offense to Missouri, a 29-27 loss, to end the season.

This will be Arkansas’ sixth trip to the Liberty Bowl and its third since 2010. The current number of -3, shows that the public has been all-in on Kansas.

Most books are reporting Jayhawks ticket count is around 7-1. The total has gone from 67.5 to 69, likely because of key Arkansas injuries and a coaching shake-up. We don’t expect the weather to play a part with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 50s and clear skies at kickoff.

It appears as if the Arkansas vs Kansas odds movement will be minimal not that it has hit the key number of three. Let’s continue our Liberty Bowl betting preview by diving deeper into the Jayhawks.

Kansas Sets Path For Future

The Jayhawks managed six wins this season and that is just fine with the Lawrence faithful who haven’t seen that many wins since 2008. In Lance Leipold’s second season as head coach, he has almost produced more wins (8) than his predecessors did in six combined years (9).

Leipold was recently named the Big 12’s Coach of the Year. The program hit a 13-year high with an AP ranking of 19. Kansas has been to the Liberty Bowl once, in 1973 when they lost to North Carolina State (31-18).

One note for bettors, kicker Jacob Borcila is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is listed as questionable after winning the job a few weeks ago for a program that continues to be weak in the kicking game.

The loss of Borcila means that that program connected on just 7 of 13 field goals this season and may not attempt any field goals in this one unless it’s a chip shot. Total bettors take not. Let’s continue our Liberty Bowl betting preview by swinging over to Arkansas.

Razorbacks Dealing with Key Losses

There’s a reason the public is comfortable betting the Jayhawks, Arkansas will be without LBs Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool. That means that Chris Paul Jr will once again be asked to play a significant role for a group of linebackers that have very little experience, especially in bowl games.

Arkansas finished 6-6 after a 9-4 2021

To make matters worse, defensive coordinator Barry Odom has taken his talents to Las Vegas to start his head coaching career. That still leaves the program without a defensive coordinator who likely would have to install a primitive variation of what the Razorbacks are used to or will be running in the Fall. Arkansas finished 6-6 after a 9-4 2021. From a psychological standpoint, the Jayhawks definitely have the advantage.

Bettors Hoping for Better Bowl Season

Last NCAAF season, bettors were just 17-21 ATS against the spread and 20-18 against totals. That adds up for another win by the books who would love every day to produce sub-500 records. In the middle of that juice fest was a small nugget that did go the way of the bettor.

When college football teams received between 70 and 79 percent of the total tickets written, that produced a very nice 7-2 record. As with most bowl games, the book wins when most are undecided, reflected in the public’s 9-19 ATS record when teams are receiving less than 70% of the total ticket count.

To conclude our Liberty Bowl betting preview,we recommend not overthinking this too much. Kansas is motivated and will be better prepared. Take the Jayhawks plus the points.

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