NCAAF Week 10 Line Movements: Few Games With Big Changes

Most Movement Takes Place Among Ranked Teams

There wasn’t a whole lot of big line movement this week in college football. That means the sportsbook did a good job on its opening numbers. But most of those that saw movement of three points or more were in games involving ranked teams. That doesn’t happen as often as big movement in the smaller schools. It’s time to look at some of the NCAAF Week 10 line movements.

Wildcats logo Kansas State Wildcats vs Texas Longhorns Longhorns logo

Day/Time: Streaming: FOX
Line: Texas -4
Total: 49

The No. 7 Longhorns opened as 7-point favorites and the NCAAF Week 10 line movements have seen the number drop to Texas -4. The total has moved from 54.5 to 49, as Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is looking more and more unlikely to play. The team is calling him week-to-week. That doesn’t really help bettors much. In his place, Texas will likely be starting Maalik Murphy. Murphy has only thrown 33 passes this season, completing 20 of them for 217 yards with two TDs and one interception.

Assuming Murphy gets the start, expect to see Texas make a major effort to run the ball, which is something the Longhorns do well. With Ewers, the Longhorns don’t have to run all that much. But when Texas wants to, it can move the ball on the ground. The Longhorns will have to in order to keep the Wildcats‘ offense off the field as much as possible. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Texas win by double-digits, but without Ewers, it’s hard to pull the trigger. No. 23 Kansas State is a solid team but might be a little overmatched here.

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LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Crimson Tide logo

Streaming: CBS
Line: Alabama -3 (-115)
Total: 61.5

No. 14 LSU visits No. 8 Alabama in another solid Southeastern Conference game on Saturday. The SEC has several pretty good games on the schedule. The NCAA football betting lines saw Alabama open as a 7-point favorite and the line is now down to Crimson Tide -3. Despite going 7-1 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread, Alabama isn’t getting much respect this season. But that’s the way Nick Saban and the Tide like it.

LSU is 6-2 on the season and is scoring 47.4 points per game, a large reason why all eight LSU games have landed over the total. The Tigers are running the ball for 213 yards and 5.8 yards per carry. But it’s the passing game that does most of the damage. LSU throws for 340.1 yards per game and averages 10.1 yards per pass attempt. The Tigers are No. 1 in the country in yards per play.

The LSU defense isn’t bad, allowing 26.5 points per game. The Tigers don’t do a great job stopping the run and are a little better against the pass. But with their offense, the Tigers don’t have to do a whole lot defensively to win ballgames.

The Crimson Tide is averaging 30.6 points per game. Alabama is running the ball quite a bit more this season, although it’s not what you would call a great rushing team. The Tide averages 3.7 yards per carry against teams allowing 3.6 yards. Alabama is throwing for 219.5 yards per game on 23 attempts, so the passing game isn’t prolific, but it’s effective.

Alabama’s defense is allowing just 16.5 points per game. It’s not the Crimson Tide’s best defense, but it gets the job done. Alabama allows 3.1 yards per rush and holds teams to 197.6 passing yards.

With the line down to Alabama -3, the Crimson Tide are worth a play.

Huskies logo Washington Huskies vs USC Trojans Trojans logo

Day/Time: Streaming: ABC
Line: Washington -3
Total: 77.5

No. 20 Southern Cal opened as 1.5-point favorites, but that didn’t last long, as No. 5 Washington is now favored by 3. The total is up slightly and is now 77.5. That’s the highest total we’ve seen in college football games 2023. The previous high was 75.5 points.

The Huskies are 8-0 and are scoring 40.4 points per game. Washington isn’t a bad running team but prefers to throw the ball with quarterback Michael Pennix Jr. Washington averages 39 pass attempts per game and 24 running plays. The Huskies throw for 399 yards per game, so you can’t blame them for airing it out.

Washington’s defense is allowing 20.6 points per game. But they’ve allowed a few more points recently. The Huskies are pretty good against the run, but allow teams to throw for 264.6 yards per game, primarily because they’re throwing so much.

USC is scoring even more than Washington, averaging 45.4 points per game. The Trojans run a little more and throw a little less, despite having Caleb Williams at quarterback. But Southern Cal is 7-2, so it’s hard to argue with what it does.

The defense can be a sore spot at times for the Trojans, allowing 32.6 points per game. USC isn’t great defending the run or the pass, but should just have to worry about the pass in this game. This is a big game for both teams, but think USC +3 is the way to play this one, which will be among the highest-scoring NCAA football scores today.

Jayhawks logo Kansas Jayhawks vs Iowa State Cyclones Cyclones logo

Streaming: ESPN
Line: Iowa State -3 (-105)
Total: 53.5

No. 21 Kansas takes to the road in this one after knocking off Oklahoma and the Jayhawks have gone from 1.5-point favorites to 3-point underdogs. It’s a big jump in the NCAAF Week 10 line movements, especially going against the ranked team in favor of the unranked squad.

Kansas has been just fine without Jalon Daniels, as Jason Bean has done a solid job. He hasn’t made the big mistakes and that’s what Kansas needs, electing to let its rushing game that is averaging 214 yards per game do its thing. The Jayhawks still throw the ball and are averaging 229.5 yards per game.

Iowa State (5-3) doesn’t score a whole lot, but it doesn’t allow many points, either. The Cyclones come into the game scoring 23.9 points and allowing 19.8. Iowa State will run the ball as often it passes and how the Cyclones come out of the gate will determine the game plan for the rest of the game.

But defense is the name of the game at Iowa State. The Cyclones are limiting teams to 329.6 total yards and 4.9 yards per play, which is solid considering their schedule.

Kansas is a likely letdown candidate and will take Iowa State in this one.

For more college football news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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