Nebraska vs Illinois Preview: Illini Least Profitable

Can the Illinois Fighting Illini get back on track? Opportunity awaits Friday (8 p.m. ET) when they host Big Ten foe Nebraska.

Oddsmakers seem to like their chances, as the Fighting Illini are 3.5-point favorites (-115) and -156 on the moneyline. The Cornhuskers, meanwhile, are +3.5 (-105) on the spread and +126 to win outright. The projected total is 44 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

Read on as we break down both NCAAF teams in our Nebraska vs Illinois preview.

Betting Trends

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 2-3 against NCAAF spreads this season. Notably, they’ve lost nine of their last 11 road games. The total has gone Under in 10 of the Cornhuskers’ last 14 contests. The Illinois Fighting Illini, meanwhile, are 0-5 ATS. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 games outright. The total has gone Under in four of the Fighting Illini’s last six contests. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Nebraska vs Illinois preview.

Regress, Regress, Regress

The Illinois Fighting Illini’s tough start continued Saturday, as they fell 44-19 to Purdue to drop to 2-3 overall. The Fighting Illini, 1-point favorites, also dropped to 0-5 ATS.Purdue was 8 for 13 on third down and finished with 406 yards of total offense. It was already the Fighting Illini’s third time this season allowing 30 points or more, twice more than all of 2022.

Some regression on defense was expected. The Fighting Illini ranked No. 1 in points allowed (12.3 per game) and No. 2 in yards allowed (263.8) last season. But a bulk of that team is gone, including All-American cornerback Devon Witherspoon. While the Fighting Illini retained some valuable pieces, including defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton, they’ve greatly underperformed.

The Fighting Illini don’t appear likely to top their projected total of 6.5 wins. With seven games remaining on the college football schedule, there’s little margin for error. While Fighting Illini won’t need to play powerhouses Ohio State or Michigan, they’ve had enough trouble against much lesser competition. Keep that in mind when analyzing the odds in our Nebraska vs Illinois preview.

Self-inflicted mistakes have been an issue. Against Purdue, the Fighting Illini committed nine penalties for 83 yards. They also turned it over once. Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer has seven interceptions through five games, four of which came in a 30-13 loss to Penn State on Sept. 16.

Waiting Game for Nebraska

The Nebraska Cornhuskers lost 45-7 to No. 2 Michigan on Saturday, falling to 2-3 under first-year head coach Matt Rhule. The Cornhuskers, a 17.5-point underdog, trailed 28-0 at halftime and wound up allowing 436 total yards. The Cornhuskers are also now 0-2 in Big Ten play, having been outscored 58-17.

Nebraska was projected for 6.0 wins. But like Illinois, it’s struggled to meet expectations. The Cornhuskers are flawed offensively. Despite leading the Big Ten in rushing, they’ve scored 14 or fewer points three times already. Sophomore Heinrich Haarberg has completed just 52.8% of his passes.

Illinois is a favorable opponent for Nebraska to get back on track. However, the Cornhuskers are just 2-9 over their last 11 road games. That includes an 0-2 mark this season.

The Cornhuskers might be moving in the right direction under Rhule, but realistically speaking, they need time. And nobody knows that better than Rhule himself, who rebuilt Temple and Baylor into bowl contenders.

Handicapping the Game

Illinois’ struggles are concerning. Its defense is a shell of its former self. Again, it’s not surprising to see the Fighting Illini take a slight step back. They did, after all, lose three starters on defense to the NFL. But clearly, whatever they’re doing now is not working.

That said, opportunity awaits against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have been rather predictable offensively. The Fighting Illini should be up for the challenge, especially with Newton clogging the trenches.

This should be close, as neither team has been all that impressive. But it’s the Fighting Illini who get the deserving edge at home.

For NCAAF scores and odds, betting news, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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