New Orleans Bowl – Louisiana vs Jacksonville State Free Picks
Jax State vs Louisiana Free Picks: Belief in Gamecocks' Growing
FBS newcomer Jacksonville State has defied expectations by climbing the FBS standings and making a college bowl in Year One. Next up is the Gamecocks’ final order of business: the New Orleans Bowl against Louisiana on Dec. 16.
The college football betting lines opened with Jacksonville State being 1.5-point underdogs but have since shifted in the Gamecocks’ favor at -3. The Gamecocks are also -166 on the moneyline, with Louisiana coming with +140 odds. Meanwhile, the projected total has climbed slightly from 55.5 to 57.
What team has the edge? Read on as we break down the matchup and provide our Jax State vs Louisiana free picks.
New Orleans Bowl
Gamecocks vs Ragin Cajuns 
Day/Time:
Records: Jacksonville State (8-4) at Louisiana (6-6)
Location: Caesars Superdome; New Orleans
Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Jax State Not Wasting Time
Jacksonville State trumped expectations in its first year of FBS competition, going 8-4. While FBS transition rules generally prohibit newcomers like Jacksonville State from postseason play, an exception was made for the Gamecocks because of a shortage of bowl-eligible programs.
Thus, the Gamecocks find themselves bowling from the jump under Rich Rodriguez.
The Gamecocks have sputtered a bit of late, dropping two of their last three games. Still, it’s hard not to come away impressed with their resume. Although they don’t have a marquee win per se, they’ve beaten everyone they’re supposed to beat.
Their four losses came against Coastal Carolina, Liberty, South Carolina and New Mexico State, teams with a combined record of 35-16.
Jacksonville State was one of the best teams in college football ATS, with a record of 8-3-1. Its 72.7% cover rate was tied for the fourth highest in FBS. The Gamecocks were just as profitable when favored, going 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU in such cases. That’s important to remember when assessing our Jax State vs Louisiana free picks.
Some skeptics might find fault in the Gamecocks’ schedule. Top to bottom, Conference USA is among the weaker leagues in the country. But the strides they’ve made shouldn’t go unnoticed.
Better Late than Never, Louisiana Bowling Again
Louisiana struggled down the stretch, losing four of its last six games. It needed to beat UL Monroe in its regular-season finale just to reach 6-6 and become bowl eligible.
This is the sixth straight bowl appearance for Louisiana, including the second in a row since Michael Desormeaux replaced Billy Napier on a full-time basis. Given the unstable landscape of college football, the Ragin’ Cajuns’ consistency over the last half-decade is fairly noticeable.
Despite its juggling act at quarterback — three different college football players have attempted at least 70 passes, led by freshman Zeon Chriss — Louisiana has fared quite well offensively. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 404.5 yards, ranking 51st nationally scoring 32.2 points per game.
They scored at least 30 points eight times and surpassed 40 on three occasions, including in its 52-21 rout of UL Monroe. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Jax State vs Louisiana free picks.
Jax State, Louisiana Close as Advertised
Most college football bowl projections didn’t have Jacksonville State making the postseason, and with good reason. The Gamecocks technically weren’t even eligible for a bowl. But that makes little difference now.
While transfers and opt-outs are a concern for many NCAAF teams, Jacksonville State and Louisiana represent one of the few exceptions. Both teams are close to whole, free of the concerns that can bog teams down this time of year.
That should make for a relatively competitive game, and the oddsmakers seem to agree. While we like Louisiana to keep this close and cover the spread at +3, Jacksonville State seems like the better moneyline bet. For one, the Gamecocks — who will motivated to prove they belonged all along — have been a bit more consistent. Thus, we’re taking Jacksonville State outright at -166.
The Over/Under has climbed from 55.5 since lines opened and remains among the highest on the college bowl schedule. While Louisiana’s struggled defensively, that total’s a bit much for our liking. Bettors may want to consider leaning toward the Under.
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