Ohio State vs Michigan Expert Pick: High Stakes in MI-OH Rivalry

Ohio State vs Michigan Expert Pick: Wolverines Favored by 3.5

Week 13 is full of rivalries across college football, none bigger than Ohio State and Michigan. In fitting fashion, the perennial powerhouses will meet Saturday (noon ET) with a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on the line — and perhaps much, much more.

Ohio State has won 15 of the last 18 NCAAF games in this series, but the tides have started to turn. Michigan hammered the Buckeyes 45-23 last November, beating them back-to-back years for the first time since 1999 and 2000.

Can the Wolverines keep building that streak? Oddsmakers are optimistic, pricing Michigan a 3.5-point favorite (+100) and -161 on the moneyline. Ohio State is +3.5 (-120) on the spread and +141 to win outright. The projected total is 46 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

Read on as we break down both college football teams and provide our Ohio State vs Michigan expert pick.

Buckeyes logoBuckeyes at Wolverines Wolverines logo

Day/Time:
Location: Michigan Stadium; Ann Arbor, MI.
Streaming: Fox

Betting Trends

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 6-3-2 against the spread, including 5-1-1 over their last seven games. But they’re just 1-2-2 ATS away from home. The total has gone Under in seven of the Buckeyes’ nine games. That’s tied with three other schools for the highest rate (81.8%) in FBS.

Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines are 5-5-1 ATS but just 1-4-1 at home. The total has gone Over in six of Michigan’s last seven games this CFB season. It’s also gone Over in each of the last nine against Ohio State. The Wolverines have won 20 straight home games altogether.

That’s important to remember when assessing our Ohio State vs Michigan expert pick.

No Harbaugh, No Problem

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh will miss his third straight game after he was suspended by the Big Ten Conference over allegations of sign stealing. To this point, the controversy swirling around the Wolverines has not slowed their pursuit of an undefeated season.

The Wolverines have rolled to an 11-0 start (8-0 in Big Ten) and are ranked No. 3 in the AP poll, trailing only Georgia and Ohio State. More importantly, they’re also third in the rankings for the College Football Playoff. When it comes to the national championship, they control their own destiny.

Oddsmakers are understandably bullish on the Wolverines, pricing them a -170 favorite to win the Big Ten and +275 to take home the NCAA title. Currently, only two-time defending champion Georgia (+230) has better NCAAF odds. Saturday is sure to impact that market.

Michigan continues to lead the country in multiple defensive categories. On average, it’s allowed the fewest points (9.0) and yards (234.8) per game. In last week’s 31-24 victory over Maryland, the Wolverines returned a fumble for a touchdown and recorded a pair of safeties. Despite that, the Wolverines, 17.5-point favorites, failed to cover the spread for the second time in three games.

Notably, J.J. McCarthy threw his first interception since Sept. 16 and only the fourth on the season. The Wolverines stuck with their run-heavy approach, riding Blake Corum 28 times for 94 yards and two touchdowns. They rank 11th in FBS in scoring offense, averaging 38.3 points. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Ohio State vs Michigan expert pick.

Ohio State ‘Buck’ing the Competition

The Ohio State Buckeyes have stayed neck and neck with Michigan, sitting atop the college football standings with an identical 11-0 (8-0 Big Ten) record. The second-ranked Buckeyes have won their last four games by double digits, including outscoring Minnesota 37-3 last week. A 27.5-point favorite, the Buckeyes also covered the spread for the second straight week.

The Buckeyes, priced +140 to win the Big Ten and +550 for the national championship, are a smidge behind the Wolverines on the odds board. But like their rivals, they control their own destiny.

Their dynamic receiving duo of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka has drawn plenty of accolades. Harrison Jr. — the son of NFL Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison — has a seven-game touchdown streak and owns the best Heisman Trophy odds (+4000) of any non-quarterback. Egbuka, meanwhile, is coming off an 83-yard day against Minnesota, his most since returning earlier this month from an ankle injury.

But the Buckeyes’ defense can’t be overlooked. On average, they’ve given up the second fewest points (9.3) and third fewest yards (252.9) per game. They haven’t given up more than one touchdown since Oct. 7 against Maryland, a span of seven games.

Will that continue Saturday? The Buckeyes have won their last nine road games and are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games against Michigan. At the very least, those trends are promising.

For college football picks, NCAAF spreads, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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