Oklahoma State vs Baylor Preview: The opening number showed the Cowboys as a -1 ½ point favorite, but the betting public jumped on Baylor making them a 2-pt favorite. This game will be a dandy and bettors should stay dialed in for any line movement.
- Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) at Baylor Bears (3-1)
- Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
- Television: FOX
Cowboys Out For Revenge Against Bears
It wasn’t too long ago that the Baylor Bears won the Big 12 with a 21-16 victory over the Oklahoma State Cowboys. That game left an especially bad taste in the mouths of the Cowboys after failing to score despite a first and goal inside the Bear’s 2-yard line.
The last attempt was inches from the goal line. In order to find success two things need to happen, quarterback Spencer Sanders needs to make better decisions (4 INT in the title game) and his offensive line must give him to properly go through his receiver progression downfield.
The Cowboys have put together a string of seasons that have stuffed cash into the pockets of bettors.
The Cowboys have put together a string of seasons that have stuffed cash into the pockets of bettors. Since 2016, Oklahoma State is 48-30, winning 1476 units of profit on a $100 wager. It’s significant that they’ve become the underdog because in that span as a dog OSU has won 16 of 20 games, +1086 units.
As a road underdog in their last 11 games, the Cowboys have covered eight of them. This is also the time of year when Oklahoma Starts to heat up with six covers in their last seven games in October, adding to their 36-17 ATS record (+1710 units) since 2007-2008.
In that time, they’re 11-4 ATS as a dog. No matter how you slice it, the Cowboys have been impressive against the number. Let’s see if we’re going to back the nation’s top-scoring offense, Saturday.
Bears Put Home Streak On The Line
Continuing our Oklahoma State vs Baylor Preview: It’s tough to go against Baylor at home, especially where they’ve won nine straight while covering six of their last seven. They were a perfect 3-0 ATS favored by five and a half points or less last season at home, 3-1 overall. They’ll try to match firepower with their own offense that ranks 22nd in scoring with an average of just over 40 points a game.
This may come down to which talented quarterback makes the fewest mistakes, with both off to incredible starts. The Cowboys’ ability to put pressure on Blake Shapen will go a long way to cashing our ticket. Last week, Shapen completed over 70% of his throws for the second time this season in their 31-24 road win against Iowa State.
In the title game, Shapen wasn’t stopped from completing passes (23-28, 82%) but the Cowboys didn’t allow anything deep, keeping them in the game. Let’s continue our OSU vs. Baylor by breaking down early betting patterns followed by the best way to cash a ticket.
Betting Patterns Show the Public on Baylor, Over
Both teams bring impressive spread resumes’ into the game which should have led to even action on both sides, but that’s not how it’s playing out. Bettors were on the Baylor opening odds as a small home dog and they’ve continued to pound them with 74% of the money on Dave Aranda’s team.
As expected the total has risen seven and a half points (48.5 to 56 o -112). With the 3 ½ point swing on the spread, it’s interesting to note that games with that exact swing are just 11-14 ATS (-438 units) against the bettors.
It seems like every parlay card has Baylor on it, confirmed this morning with a whopping 81% of cards carrying the Bears on it. To conclude our Oklahoma State vs Baylor preview, our official recommendation is to take the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the points. The betting public has been right just 47.62% of the time this season, expect another loss Saturday. Be sure to pay close attention to the ever changing college football point spread, this weekend and the rest of the season.
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