- Game: Oklahoma Sooners (3-1) at TCU Horned Frogs (3-0)
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
- Television: ABC
Sooners Hope to Bounce Back After Shocking Loss to KSU
Since 2005, when Oklahoma is a -550 moneyline favorite or better, the Sooners are an incredible 72-12 (85.71%). Unfortunately, that is still not enough to be a profitable trend (-629). That fact was drilled home one more time last week when the Sooners dropped a 41-34 decision against Kansas State as a 13 ½ point favorite.
That fact was drilled home one more time last week when the Sooners dropped a 41-34 decision against Kansas State as a 13 ½ point favorite.
The loss pushed the Sooners to a 2-2 ATS record in 2022. The Sooners were horrific against the run, allowing 148 yards to the Wildcats running back Adrian Martinez. Keep in mind that this is the third time in four seasons that Kansas State has beaten Oklahoma.
The Nebraska transfer almost made it four straight in 2021, but the Sooners were able to hold off the Wildcats twice in their 37-31 win. We are willing to chalk that loss up to a team that seems to have their number. The Sooners have had better luck against the Frogs, covering six of their last seven meetings (+457 units), including a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road run.
Frogs Bring Explosive Offense
Continuing our Oklahoma vs TCU betting preview; TCU fans are hoping that TCU QB Max Duggan can put up the same type of numbers that Martinez did last week. Duggan is no stranger to showing off his athleticism including in 2019 when he ran for 92 yards against Oklahoma.
The question remains, can the Frogs be a reliable wager in the Big 12 where they’ve struggled?
His legs can be dangerous but it’s his arm that has Sooners’ head coach Brent Venables worried. Duggan has completed 77% of his throws this season, but most importantly he hasn’t thrown a pick against his eight touchdowns. TCU’s offense averages 510 yards a game, good for 9th nationally.
The question remains, can the Frogs be a reliable wager in the Big 12 where they’ve struggled? Overall since 2016, TCU is just 71-84 (45.81%) ATS, costing bettors 1793 units. In conference, games have produced worse results (30-45 ATS) -1701 units. Let’s continue our Oklahoma and TCU preview by giving you the sharpest way to attack this match-up.
Forget What You Just Saw
The best advice to any new gambler when it comes to sports is simply to forget what you just saw. You would think that after a loss to Kansas State, it may be best to stay away until they can right the ship. Professionals will tell you that it’s best to jump back on that team if you believe they’re still one of the better programs in the country. That’s the flavor of our selection.
What was overlooked in defeat was the fact that the Sooners ran for 220 yards as part of 550 yards of total offense. If 11 penalties are cleaned up this week, it’s possible that they win this one easily. The Sooners are 15-11 ATS against conference foes since 2020, but perhaps will look to balance their offense, even more, this week because Oklahoma has now fallen to 5-12 ATS when they run for 200 yards or more.
Concluding our Oklahoma vs TCU betting preview… let’s give our official recommendation by offering up Oklahoma minus the generous -6.5 points. It is important to get this game in now because this number has grown from its opening number of five.
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